GEORGIA POWER CO
For the period ended Sep 30, 2024. Filed Oct 31, 2024.
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Sep 30, 2024 · Filed Oct 31, 2024
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Future Earnings Potential
Each Registrant's results of operations are not necessarily indicative of its future earnings potential. The level of the Registrants' future earnings depends on numerous factors that affect the opportunities, challenges, and risks of the Registrants' primary businesses of selling electricity and/or distributing natural gas, as described further herein.
For the traditional electric operating companies, these factors include the ability to maintain constructive regulatory environments that allow for the timely recovery of prudently-incurred costs during a time of increasing costs, including those related to projected long-term demand growth, stringent environmental standards, including CCR rules, safety, system reliability and resiliency, fuel, restoration following major storms, and capital expenditures, including constructing new electric generating plants and expanding and improving the transmission and distribution systems; continued customer growth; and the trends of higher inflation and reduced electricity usage per customer, especially in residential and commercial markets.
Earnings in the electricity business will also depend upon maintaining and growing sales, considering, among other things, recent trends driving projected growth in electricity consumption including the increasing digitization of the economy and growth in data centers, an increase in industrial activity in the Southern Company system's electric service territory, and continued electrification of transportation. These growth opportunities could be offset by energy efficiency trends in each market.
Global and U.S. economic conditions continue to be affected by higher-than-expected inflation that arose from the COVID-19 pandemic and associated policy responses of governments and central banks. In response to elevated inflation levels, the U.S. Federal Reserve raised interest rates faster than any rate increase cycle in the last 40 years. The actions by the U.S. Federal Reserve have helped to slow the rate of inflation and curtail economic activity. Although target levels of inflation have yet to be achieved, the U.S. Federal Reserve has initiated rate cuts and is expected to continue policy rate reductions into 2025. The shifting economic policy variables and weakening of historic relationships among economic activity, prices, and employment have increased the uncertainty of future levels of economic activity which will directly impact future energy demand and operating costs. Weakening economic activity increases the risk of slowing or declining energy sales. See RESULTS OF OPERATIONS herein for information on energy sales in the Southern Company system's service territory during the first nine months of 2024.
The level of future earnings for Southern Power's competitive wholesale electric business depends on numerous factors including the parameters of the wholesale market and the efficient operation of its wholesale generating assets; Southern Power's ability to execute its growth strategy through the development, construction, or acquisition of renewable facilities and other energy projects while containing costs; regulatory matters; customer creditworthiness; total electric generating capacity available in Southern Power's market areas; Southern Power's ability to successfully remarket capacity as current contracts expire; renewable portfolio standards; continued availability of federal and state ITCs and PTCs, which could be impacted by future tax legislation; transmission constraints; cost of generation from units within the Southern Company power pool; and operational limitations. See MANAGEMENT'S DISCUSSION AND ANALYSIS – FUTURE EARNINGS POTENTIAL – "Income Tax Matters" in Item 7 of the Form 10-K for information regarding the Inflation Reduction Act's expansion of the availability of federal ITCs and PTCs and Note (K) to the Condensed Financial Statements under "Southern Power" herein for information regarding construction projects.
The level of future earnings for Southern Company Gas' primary business of distributing natural gas and its complementary businesses in the gas pipeline investments and gas marketing services sectors depends on numerous factors. These factors include the natural gas distribution utilities' ability to maintain constructive regulatory environments that allow for the timely recovery of prudently-incurred costs, including those related to projected long-term demand growth, safety, system reliability and resiliency, natural gas, and capital expenditures, including expanding and improving the natural gas distribution systems; the completion and subsequent operation of ongoing infrastructure and other construction projects; customer creditworthiness; and certain policies to limit the use of natural gas, such as the potential in Illinois and across certain other parts of the U.S. for state or municipal bans on the use of natural gas or policies designed to promote electrification. The volatility of natural gas prices has an impact on Southern Company Gas' customer rates, its long-term competitive position against other energy sources, and the ability of Southern Company Gas' gas marketing services business to capture value from locational and seasonal spreads. Additionally, changes in commodity prices, primarily driven by tight gas supplies, geopolitical events, and diminished gas production, subject a portion of Southern Company Gas' operations to earnings variability and may result in higher natural gas prices. Additional economic factors may contribute to this environment. The demand for natural gas may increase, which may cause natural gas prices to rise and drive higher volatility in the natural gas markets on a longer-term basis. Alternatively, a significant drop in oil and natural gas prices could lead to a consolidation of natural gas producers or reduced levels of natural gas production.
Earnings for both the electricity and natural gas businesses are subject to a variety of other factors. These factors include weather; competition; developing new and maintaining existing energy contracts and associated load requirements with wholesale customers; customer energy conservation practices; the use of alternative energy sources by customers; government incentives to reduce overall energy usage; fuel, labor, and material prices in an environment of heightened inflation and material and labor supply chain disruptions; and the price elasticity of demand. Demand for electricity and natural gas in the Registrants' service territories is primarily driven by the pace of economic growth or decline that may be affected by changes in regional and global economic conditions, which may impact future earnings.
As part of its ongoing effort to adapt to changing market conditions, Southern Company continues to evaluate and consider a wide array of potential business strategies. These strategies may include business combinations, partnerships, and acquisitions involving other utility or non-utility businesses or properties, disposition of, or the sale of interests in, certain assets or businesses, internal restructuring, or some combination thereof. Furthermore, Southern Company may engage in new business ventures that arise from competitive and regulatory changes in the utility industry. Pursuit of any of the above strategies, or any combination thereof, may significantly affect the business operations, risks, and financial condition of Southern Company. In addition, Southern Power and Southern Company Gas regularly consider and evaluate joint development arrangements as well as acquisitions and dispositions of businesses and assets as part of their business strategies. See Note 15 to the financial statements in Item 8 of the Form 10-K, Note (K) to the Condensed Financial Statements herein, and "Construction Programs" herein for additional information.
For additional information relating to these issues, see RISK FACTORS in Item 1A and MANAGEMENT'S DISCUSSION AND ANALYSIS – FUTURE EARNINGS POTENTIAL in Item 7 of the Form 10-K.
Environmental Matters
See MANAGEMENT'S DISCUSSION AND ANALYSIS– FUTURE EARNINGS POTENTIAL– "Environmental Matters" and – FINANCIAL CONDITION AND LIQUIDITY– "Cash Requirements" in Item 7 and Note 3 to the financial statements under "Environmental Remediation" and Note 6 to the financial statements in Item 8 of the Form 10-K, as well as Note (C) to the Condensed Financial Statements under "General Litigation Matters" and "Environmental Remediation" herein, for additional information.
Environmental Laws and Regulations
Air Quality
On June 27, 2024, the U.S. Supreme Court stayed the 2015 Ozone National Ambient Air Quality Standards Good Neighbor federal implementation plan (FIP) pending the disposition of petitions for review of the FIP in the U.S. Court of Appeals for the D.C. Circuit and any petition for writ of certiorari to the U.S. Supreme Court. On September 12, 2024, the U.S. Court of Appeals for the D.C. Circuit granted the EPA's motion for partial voluntary remand of the FIP to address the administrative record deficiencies preliminarily identified by the U.S. Supreme Court. While the EPA completes its supplemental review, the U.S. Court of Appeals for the D.C. Circuit will hold challenges to the FIP in abeyance.
On October 21, 2024, the U.S. Supreme Court issued an order granting review of a decision by the U.S. Court of Appeals for the Tenth Circuit transferring challenges to the EPA's disapproval of interstate transport state implementation plans to the U.S. Court of Appeals for the D.C. Circuit. On October 24, 2024, the U.S. Court of Appeals for the Eleventh Circuit placed the Alabama state implementation plan disapproval case in abeyance pending the U.S. Supreme Court's decision on the venue issue.
The ultimate impact of the FIP and associated legal matters cannot be determined at this time; however, implementation of the stayed FIP would likely result in increased compliance costs for the traditional electric operating companies.
Water Quality
On May 9, 2024, the EPA published the final rule revising the Steam Effluent Guidelines (ELG Final Rule), which establishes more stringent limits for flue gas desulfurization wastewater, bottom ash transport water, and combustion residual leachate to be met no later than December 31, 2029. The ELG Final Rule maintains the existing rule's permanent cessation of coal subcategory and the existing rule's voluntary incentive program and adds a new cessation subcategory which allows units to cease coal combustion by December 31, 2034 as opposed to meeting the new more stringent requirements. The ELG Final Rule also establishes limitations for legacy wastewater which will be effective 60 days from the date of publication. Numerous groups and states filed petitions for review challenging the rule in multiple federal circuit courts, and, on June 14, 2024, the challenges were consolidated in the U.S. Court of Appeals for the Eighth Circuit. On July 26, 2024, industry and state petitioners filed a motion to stay the rule pending judicial review, which was denied on October 10, 2024. The ultimate impact of the ELG Final Rule and associated legal matters cannot be determined at this time; however, it may result in significant compliance costs.
Coal Combustion Residuals
On May 8, 2024, the EPA published the final legacy CCR surface impoundments rule which establishes two new categories of federally regulated CCR, legacy surface impoundments and CCR management units (CCRMU). The rule requires legacy surface impoundments and CCRMUs to meet certain existing regulatory requirements, including a requirement to initiate closure within 42 months after the effective date of the final rule for legacy surface impoundments and within 54 months after the effective date of the final rule for CCRMUs. The final rule also includes an option to defer closure of previously closed units where certain criteria have been met. The final rule also includes enhanced reporting requirements. The EPA is also finalizing an alternative provision for closure by removal that will allow certifying completion of closure of a unit while conducting groundwater monitoring and corrective action during post-closure care. Numerous industry groups, electric generators, and states filed petitions for review challenging the rule in the U.S. Court of Appeals for the D.C. Circuit. On August 19, 2024, an industry petitioner filed a motion seeking to stay the legacy CCR rule pending judicial review. The ultimate impact of the final rule and associated legal matters cannot be determined at this time; however, it may result in significant compliance costs.
On June 7, 2024, the EPA published a final determination to deny the Alabama Department of Environmental Management's CCR permit program. Alabama Power's permits to close its CCR facilities remain valid under state law. In the absence of an EPA-approved state permit program, CCR facilities in Alabama will remain subject to both the federal and state CCR rules. The ultimate impact of this action cannot be determined at this time; however, it may result in significant compliance costs.
On June 28, 2024, the U.S. Court of Appeals for the D.C. Circuit issued a decision dismissing industry challenges to the EPA's January 11, 2022 actions and interpretations related to the closure performance standards in the 2015
CCR rule. The ultimate impacts of this decision and the EPA's current positions cannot be determined at this time; however, it may result in significant compliance costs.
Based on compliance requirements for closure and monitoring of CCR units pursuant to state and federal CCR rules, the traditional electric operating companies have periodically updated, and expect to continue periodically updating, their related cost estimates and ARO liabilities for each CCR unit as additional information related to compliance monitoring, closure methodologies and strategies, schedules, and/or costs becomes available. Some of these updates have been, and future updates may be, material. The cost estimates for Alabama Power are based on closure-in-place for all surface impoundments. The cost estimates for Georgia Power and Mississippi Power are based on a combination of closure-in-place for some surface impoundments and closure by removal for others. Additionally, the closure designs and plans in the States of Alabama and Georgia are subject to approval by environmental regulatory agencies. Absent continued recovery of ARO costs through regulated rates, results of operations, cash flows, and financial condition for Southern Company and the traditional electric operating companies could be materially impacted.
Greenhouse Gases
On May 9, 2024, the EPA published the final GHG rules for existing fossil fuel-fired steam electric generating units and new fossil fuel-fired combustion turbines and combined cycle generation facilities, which requires GHG limits for subcategories of both new and existing units. The new rules do not include standards for existing fossil fuel-fired combustion turbines and combined cycle generation facilities, which have been deferred to a future rulemaking. Requirements for existing coal-fired units are based on technologies such as carbon capture and sequestration (CCS) and natural gas co-firing. States have 24 months after the rule's publication to submit state plans for existing units. The rule allows states to consider remaining useful life and other factors to specify alternative, unit-specific emissions limits and compliance timelines for existing units, as needed to address reliability and other concerns. Existing source compliance will begin as early as January 1, 2030, depending on the subcategory. The final rule incorporates some limited reliability mechanisms including a provision for short-term grid emergencies and a "reliability assurance mechanism" that allows for a one-time, up to one year, extension of existing coal unit retirement dates specified in an approved state plan. The standards for new combustion turbines and combined cycles include subcategories for low, intermediate, and base load operations. Compliance with new source standards begins when the unit comes online, with requirements for CCS beginning on January 1, 2032. The EPA also simultaneously repealed the Affordable Clean Energy rule. Numerous industry groups, electric generators, and states have filed petitions for review challenging the rule in the U.S. Court of Appeals for the D.C. Circuit. A total of eight stay motions were filed seeking a stay of the rule pending judicial review, which were denied by the U.S. Court of Appeals for the D.C. Circuit on July 19, 2024. On October 16, 2024, the U.S. Supreme Court denied emergency stay applications filed by numerous industry groups, electric generators, and states. The ultimate impact of the final rules and associated legal matters cannot be determined at this time; however, it may result in significant compliance costs.
Regulatory Matters
See Note 2 to the financial statements in Item 8 of the Form 10-K, OVERVIEW – "Recent Developments" herein, and Note (B) to the Condensed Financial Statements herein for a discussion of regulatory matters related to Alabama Power, Georgia Power, Mississippi Power, and Southern Company Gas, including items that could impact the applicable Registrants' future earnings, cash flows, and/or financial condition.
Construction Programs
The Southern Company system strategy continues to include developing and constructing new electric generating facilities, expanding and improving the electric transmission and electric and natural gas distribution systems, and undertaking projects to comply with environmental laws and regulations.
The traditional electric operating companies are engaged in continuous construction programs to accommodate existing and estimated future loads on their respective systems. Major generation construction projects are subject to state PSC approval in order to be included in retail rates. See Note 2 to the financial statements in Item 8 of the Form 10-K and Note (B) to the Condensed Financial Statements herein under "Georgia Power – Integrated Resource Plans" for information regarding Georgia Power's construction of three simple cycle combustion turbines at Plant Yates.
See Note (K) to the Condensed Financial Statements under "Southern Power" herein for information relating to Southern Power's construction of renewable energy facilities.
Southern Company Gas is engaged in various infrastructure improvement programs designed to update or expand the natural gas distribution systems of the natural gas distribution utilities to improve reliability and resiliency, reduce emissions, and meet operational flexibility and growth. The natural gas distribution utilities recover their investment and a return associated with these infrastructure programs through their regulated rates. See Note 2 to the financial statements in Item 8 of the Form 10-K and Note (B) to the Condensed Financial Statements herein under "Southern Company Gas – Infrastructure Replacement Programs and Capital Projects" for additional information on Southern Company Gas' construction program.
SNG is developing an approximately $3 billion proposed pipeline project, designed to meet customer demand by increasing SNG's existing pipeline capacity by approximately 1.2 billion cubic feet per day. Subject to the satisfaction or waiver of various conditions, including the receipt of all required approvals by regulators, including the FERC, the operator of the joint venture anticipates the project will be completed in 2028. Southern Company Gas' share of the total project costs would be 50%. The ultimate outcome of this matter cannot be determined at this time. See Note 7 to the financial statements in Item 8 of the Form 10-K and Note (E) to the Condensed Financial Statements herein under "Southern Company Gas" for additional information on SNG.
See FINANCIAL CONDITION AND LIQUIDITY – "Cash Requirements" herein for additional information regarding the Registrants' capital requirements for their construction programs.
Income Tax Matters
See Note (G) to the Condensed Financial Statements herein and MANAGEMENT'S DISCUSSION AND ANALYSIS – FUTURE EARNINGS POTENTIAL – "Income Tax Matters" in Item 7 of the Form 10-K for additional information.
Inflation Reduction Act
Alabama Power and Georgia Power have nuclear generating facilities that may qualify to generate and claim PTCs under the Inflation Reduction Act beginning in 2024, subject to the issuance of additional guidance by the U.S. Treasury Department and the Internal Revenue Service (IRS). The ultimate outcome of this matter cannot be determined at this time.
Additionally, the Inflation Reduction Act enacted a new 15% corporate alternative minimum tax (CAMT) on adjusted financial statement income, as defined in the law, beginning in 2023. On September 12, 2024, the U.S. Treasury Department and the IRS issued a notice of proposed regulations that would address the application of the CAMT. Southern Company is evaluating the proposed regulations and was not subject to the CAMT for the 2023 tax year based on interpretations of the early guidance. However, Southern Company believes it may be subject to the CAMT for the 2024 tax year dependent upon the final assessment of the tax treatment of Georgia Power's storm restoration costs. If applicable, the CAMT will primarily be satisfied by tax credits. As such, the CAMT could materially impact operating cash flows of certain Registrants but will not impact the Registrants' net income. Application of the CAMT is subject to the issuance of additional guidance by the U.S. Treasury Department and the IRS and the ultimate outcome of this matter cannot be determined at this time. See Note (B) to the Condensed Financial Statements under "Georgia Power – Storm Damage Recovery" herein for additional information.
Georgia State Tax Legislation
On April 18, 2024, the State of Georgia enacted tax legislation that reduced the corporate income tax rate from 5.75% to 5.39% effective for the 2024 tax year. This legislation reduced the amount of Southern Company's and certain subsidiaries' income tax expense in the State of Georgia and existing state net accumulated deferred tax liabilities, increased regulatory liabilities at Georgia Power and Southern Company Gas, and reduces Georgia Power's ability to utilize certain state tax credits in the State of Georgia. The legislation did not have a material impact on the net income of the applicable Registrants.
Natural Gas Safe Harbor Method
On April 30, 2024, the IRS issued Revenue Procedure 2024-23, which gives additional implementation guidance on the natural gas safe harbor tax method of accounting for qualifying repair deductions. Southern Company and Southern Company Gas intend to submit a tax accounting method change for qualifying expenditures with the filing of the 2024 federal income tax return. The new tax method of accounting is expected to result in a material net positive cash flow in 2024 for Southern Company Gas; however, the timing of this positive cash flow could be delayed by application of the CAMT. This will not have a material impact on Southern Company. The ultimate outcome of this matter cannot be determined at this time.
General Litigation and Other Matters
The Registrants are involved in various matters being litigated and/or regulatory and other matters that could affect future earnings, cash flows, and/or financial condition. The ultimate outcome of such pending or potential litigation against each Registrant and any subsidiaries or regulatory and other matters cannot be determined at this time; however, for current proceedings and/or matters not specifically reported herein or in Notes (B) and (C) to the Condensed Financial Statements herein, management does not anticipate that the ultimate liabilities, if any, arising from such current proceedings and/or matters would have a material effect on such Registrant's financial statements. See Notes (B) and (C) to the Condensed Financial Statements for a discussion of various contingencies, including matters being litigated, regulatory matters, and other matters which may affect future earnings potential.
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