NATIONAL RURAL UTILITIES COOPERATIVE FINANCE CORP DC

Interest rate risk represents our primary source of market risk, as interest rate-volatility can have a significant impact on the earnings and overall financial condition of a financial institution. We are exposed to interest rate risk primarily from the differences in the timing between the maturity or repricing of our loans and the liabilities funding our loans. We seek to generate stable adjusted net interest income on a sustained and long-term basis by minimizing the mismatch between the cash flows from our financial assets and our financial liabilities. We use derivatives as a tool in matching the duration and repricing characteristics of our interest-rate sensitive assets and liabilities. We provide additional information on our management of interest rate risk in our 2023 Form 10-K under “Item 7. MD&A—Market Risk—Interest Rate Risk Management.” Below we discuss how we manage and measure interest rate risk.

Interest Rate Risk Assessment

Our Asset Liability Management (“ALM”) framework includes the use of analytic tools and capabilities, enabling CFC to generate a comprehensive profile of our interest rate risk exposure. We routinely measure and assess our interest rate risk exposure using various methodologies through the use of ALM models that enable us to accurately measure and monitor our interest rate risk exposure under multiple interest rate scenarios using several different techniques. Below we present two measures used to assess our interest rate risk exposure: (i) the interest rate sensitivity of projected net interest income and adjusted net interest income; and (ii) duration gap.

Interest Rate Sensitivity Analysis

We regularly evaluate the sensitivity of our interest-earning assets and the interest-bearing liabilities funding those assets and our net interest income and adjusted net interest income projections under multiple interest rate scenarios. Each month we update our ALM models to reflect our existing balance sheet position and incorporate different assumptions about forecasted changes in our balance sheet position over the next 12 months. Based on the forecasted balance sheet changes, we generate various projections of net interest income and adjusted net interest income over the next 12 months. Management reviews and assesses these projections and underlying assumptions to identify a baseline scenario of projected net interest income and adjusted net interest income over the next 12 months, which reflects what management considers, at the time, as the most likely scenario. As discussed under “Summary of Selected Financial Data,” we derive adjusted net interest income by adjusting our reported interest expense and net interest income to include the impact of net derivative cash settlements amounts.

Our interest rate sensitivity analyses take into consideration existing interest rate-sensitive assets and liabilities as of the reported balance sheet date and forecasted changes to the balance sheet over the next 12 months under management’s baseline projection. As discussed in the “Executive Summary—Outlook” section, we currently anticipate net long-term loan growth of $1,763 million over the next 12 months. We also expect that our variable-rate line of credit loans outstanding will remain at an elevated level over the same period. Although the yield curve is expected to remain inverted throughout 2024, given the expected drop in short-term interest rates, the yield curve inversion is expected to narrow in 2024.

Based on our current forecast assumptions, including the yield curve forecast noted above, we project a decrease in our reported net interest income and reported net interest yield over the next 12 months compared to the 12-month period ended November 30, 2023. We also project a decrease in our adjusted net interest income and adjusted net interest yield over the next 12 months relative to the 12-month period ended November 30, 2023, primarily due to the current yield curve assumptions and our balance sheet position.

Table 26 presents the estimated percentage impact that a hypothetical instantaneous parallel shift of plus or minus 100 basis points in the interest rate yield curve, relative to our base case forecast yield curve, would have on our projected baseline 12-month net interest income and adjusted net interest income as of November 30, 2023 and May 31, 2023. In instances where the hypothetical instantaneous interest rate shift of minus 100 basis points results in a negative interest rate, we assume an interest rate floor rate of 0% in a negative interest rate. We also present the estimated percentage impact on our projected baseline 12-month net interest income and adjusted net interest income assuming a hypothetical inverted yield curve under which shorter-term interest rates increase by an instantaneous 75 basis points and longer-term interest rates decrease by an instantaneous 75 basis points.

Table 26: Interest Rate Sensitivity Analysis

(1)The actual impact on our reported and adjusted net interest income may differ significantly from the sensitivity analysis presented.

(2)We include net periodic derivative cash settlement interest expense amounts as a component of interest expense in deriving adjusted net interest income. See the section “Non-GAAP Financial Measures” for a reconciliation of the non-GAAP financial measures presented in this Report to the most comparable U.S. GAAP financial measures.

The changes in the sensitivity measures between November 30, 2023 and May 31, 2023 are primarily attributable to a slight decrease in the amount of variable rate assets being funded with fixed rate debt, changes in the size and composition of our forecasted balance sheet, as well as changes in current interest rates and forecasted interest rates. As the interest rate sensitivity simulations displayed in Table 26 indicate, we would expect an unfavorable impact on our projected net interest income over a 12-month horizon as of November 30, 2023, under the hypothetical scenario of an instantaneous parallel shift of plus 100 basis points in the interest rate yield curve and a further inverted yield curve. However, we would expect an unfavorable impact on our adjusted net interest income over a 12-month horizon as of November 30, 2023, under the hypothetical scenario of an instantaneous parallel shift of minus 100 basis points in the interest rate yield curve.

Duration Gap

The duration gap, which represents the difference between the estimated duration of our interest-earning assets and the estimated duration of our interest-bearing liabilities, summarizes the extent to which the cash flows for assets and liabilities are matched over time. We use derivatives in managing the differences in timing between the maturities or repricing of our interest earning assets and the debt funding those assets. A positive duration gap indicates that the duration of our interest-earning assets is greater than the duration of our debt and derivatives, and therefore denotes an increased exposure to rising interest rates over the long term. Conversely, a negative duration gap indicates that the duration of our interest-earning assets is less than the duration of our debt and derivatives, and therefore denotes an increased exposure to declining interest rates over the long term. While the duration gap provides a relatively concise and simple measure of the interest rate risk inherent in our consolidated balance sheet as of the reported date, it does not incorporate projected changes in our consolidated balance sheet.

The duration gap widened slightly to negative 1.48 months as of November 30, 2023, from negative 1.34 months as of May 31, 2023 and was within the risk limits and guidelines established by CFC’s Asset Liability Committee as of each respective date. The slight widening of the duration gap is primarily due to an increase in line of credit loans outstanding of $169 million, which reduced the duration of interest-earning assets.

Limitations of Interest Rate Risk Measures

While we believe that the interest income sensitivities and duration gap measures provided are useful tools in assessing our interest rate risk exposure, there are inherent limitations in any methodology used to estimate the exposure to changes in market interest rates. These measures should be understood as estimates rather than as precise measurements. The interest rate sensitivity analyses only contemplate certain hypothetical movements in interest rates and are performed at a particular point in time based on the existing balance sheet and, in some cases, expected future business growth and funding mix assumptions. The strategic actions that management may take to manage our balance sheet may differ significantly from our projections, which could cause our actual interest income to differ substantially from the above sensitivity analysis. Moreover, as discussed above, we use various other methodologies to measure and monitor our interest rate risk under multiple interest rate scenarios, which, together, provide a comprehensive profile of our interest rate risk.