LINCOLN NATIONAL CORP

The MD&A included in our 2023 Form 10-K contains a detailed discussion of our critical accounting estimates. The following information updates the “Summary of Critical Accounting Estimates” provided in our 2023 Form 10-K, and therefore, should be read in conjunction with that disclosure.

Investments

Investment Valuation

The following summarizes investments on the Consolidated Balance Sheets carried at fair value by pricing source and fair value hierarchy level (in millions) as of September 30, 2024:

(1)Represents primarily securities for which pricing models were used to compute fair value.

For more information about the valuation of our financial instruments carried at fair value, see “Part II – Item 7. Management’s Discussion and Analysis of Financial Condition and Results of Operations – Introduction – Summary of Critical Accounting Estimates – Investments – Investment Valuation” in our 2023 Form 10-K and Note 13 herein.

Derivatives

Derivatives are primarily used for hedging purposes. We hedge certain portions of our exposure to interest rate risk, foreign currency exchange risk, equity market risk, basis risk, commodity risk and credit risk by entering into derivative transactions. We also purchase and issue financial instruments that contain embedded derivative instruments. See “Policyholder Account Balances” below for information on embedded derivatives. Assessing the effectiveness of hedging and evaluating the carrying values of the related derivatives often involve a variety of assumptions and estimates

We carry our derivative instruments at fair value, which we determine through valuation techniques or models that use market data inputs or independent broker quotations. The fair values fluctuate from period to period due to the volatility of the valuation inputs, including but not limited to swap interest rates, interest and equity volatility and equity index levels, foreign currency forward and spot rates, credit spreads and correlations, some of which are significantly affected by economic conditions. The effect to revenue is reported in realized gain (loss) and such amount along with the associated federal income taxes is excluded from income (loss) from operations of our segments.

For more information on derivatives, see Note 1 in our 2023 Form 10-K and Note 5 herein. For more information on market exposures associated with our derivatives, including sensitivities, see “Part II – Item 7A. Quantitative and Qualitative Disclosures About Market Risk” in our 2023 Form 10-K.

Future Contract Benefits

Future contract benefits represent liability reserves that we have established and carry based on estimates of how much we will need to pay for future benefits and claims.

Liability for Future Policy Benefits

Liability for future policy benefits (“LFPB”) represents the reserve amounts associated with non-participating traditional life insurance contracts and limited payment life-contingent annuity contracts that are calculated to meet the various policy and contract obligations as they mature. Establishing adequate reserves for our obligations to policyholders requires assumptions to be made that are intended to represent an estimation of experience for the period that policy benefits are payable. If actual experience is better than or equal to the assumptions, then reserves should be adequate to provide for future benefits and expenses. If experience is worse than the assumptions, additional reserves may be required. Significant assumptions include mortality rates, morbidity and policyholder behavior (e.g., persistency) and withdrawals. During the third quarter of each year, we conduct our comprehensive review of the actuarial assumptions to best estimate future premium and benefit cash flows (“cash flow assumptions”) and projection models used in estimating these liabilities and update these assumptions as needed (excluding the claims settlement expense assumption that is locked-in at inception) in the calculation of the net premium ratio. We may also update these assumptions in other quarters as we become aware of information that is indicative of the need for such an update. See “Annual Assumption Review” below for more information. In measuring our LFPB, we establish cohorts, which are groupings of long-duration contracts. On a quarterly basis, we retrospectively update the net premium ratio at the cohort level for actual experience. For all contract cohorts issued after January 1, 2021, interest is accrued on LFPB at the single-A interest rate on the contract cohort inception date. For contract cohorts issued prior to January 1, 2021, interest remains accruing at the original discount rate in effect on the contract cohort inception date due to the modified retrospective transition method. We also remeasure the LFPB using the single-A interest rate as of the end of each reporting period.

Liability for Future Claims

Future contract benefits include reserves for long-term life and disability claims associated with our Group Protection segment. These reserves use actuarial assumptions primarily based on claim termination rates, offsets for other insurance including social security and long-term disability incidence and severity assumptions. Such cash flow assumptions are subject to the comprehensive review process discussed above. We remeasure the liability for future claims using a single-A interest rate as of the end of each reporting period. See “Annual Assumption Review” below for more information.

Universal Life Insurance Products with Secondary Guarantees

We issue UL-type contracts where we provide a secondary guarantee to the policyholder. The policy can remain in force, even if the base policy account balance is zero, as long as contractual secondary guarantee requirements have been met. These guaranteed benefits require an additional liability that is calculated based on the application of a benefit ratio (calculated as the present value of total expected benefit payments over the life of the contract from inception divided by the present value of total expected assessments over the life of the contract). These secondary guarantees are reported within future contract benefits on the Consolidated Balance Sheets. The level and direction of the change in reserves will vary over time based on the emergence of the benefit ratio and the level of assessments associated with the contracts. Cash flow assumptions incorporated in a benefit ratio in measuring these additional liabilities for other insurance benefits include mortality rates, morbidity, policyholder behavior (e.g., persistency) and withdrawals based principally on generally accepted actuarial methods and assumptions. During the third quarter of each year, we conduct our comprehensive review of the cash flow assumptions and projection models used in estimating these liabilities and update these assumptions in the calculation of the benefit ratio. We may also update these assumptions in other quarters as we become aware of information that is indicative of the need for such an update. See “Annual Assumption Review” below for more information.

For additional information on future contract benefits, see Note 11.

Market Risk Benefits

MRBs are contracts or contract features that provide protection to the policyholder from other-than-nominal capital market risk and expose us to other-than-nominal capital market risk upon the occurrence of a specific event or circumstance, such as death, annuitization or periodic withdrawal. An MRB can be in either an asset or a liability position. Our MRB assets and MRB liabilities are reported at fair value separately on the Consolidated Balance Sheet.

We issue variable and fixed annuity contracts that may include various types of guaranteed living benefit (“GLB”) and guaranteed death benefit (“GDB”) riders that we have accounted for as MRBs. For contracts that contain multiple riders that qualify as MRBs, the MRBs are valued on a combined basis using an integrated model. We have entered into reinsurance agreements to cede certain GLB and GDB riders where the reinsurance agreements themselves are accounted for as MRBs or contain MRBs. We therefore record ceded MRB assets and ceded MRB liabilities associated with these reinsurance agreements. We report ceded MRBs associated with these reinsurance agreements in other assets or other liabilities on the Consolidated Balance Sheets.

Net amount at risk (“NAR”) represents the amount of GLB or GDB in excess of a policyholder’s account balance at the balance sheet date. Underperforming markets increase our exposure to potential benefits with the GLB and GDB riders. A contract with a GDB rider is “in the money” if the policyholder’s account balance falls below the GDB. As of September 30, 2024 and 2023, 5% and 27%, respectively, of all in-force contracts with a GDB rider were “in the money.” A contract with a GLB rider is “in the money” if the policyholder’s account balance falls below the present value of GLB payments, assuming no full surrenders. As of September 30, 2024 and 2023,13% and 33%, respectively, of all in-force contracts with a GLB rider were “in the money.” However, the only way the policyholder can realize the excess of the present value of benefits over the account balance of the contract is through a series of withdrawals or income payments that do not exceed a maximum amount. If, after the series of withdrawals or income payments, the account balance is exhausted, the policyholder will continue to receive a series of annuity payments. The account balance can also fluctuate with market returns on a daily basis resulting in increases or decreases in the excess of the present value of benefits over account balance.

Many policyholders have both a GLB and GDB present on the same policy. The total NAR represents the greater of GLB NAR and GDB NAR for each policy as only one benefit can be exercised in practice. Details underlying the NAR, net of reinsurance, (in millions) were as follows:

Change in the fair value of MRB assets and liabilities is reported in market risk benefit gain (loss) on the Consolidated Statements of Comprehensive Income (Loss), except for the portion attributable to the change in non-performance risk, which is recognized in other comprehensive income (loss) (“OCI”). Change in the fair value of ceded MRB assets and liabilities, including the changes in our counterparties’ non-performance risks, is reported in market risk benefit gain (loss) on the Consolidated Statements of Comprehensive Income (Loss).

MRBs are valued based on a stochastic projection of risk-neutral scenarios that incorporate a spread reflecting our non-performance risk. Ceded MRBs are valued based on a stochastic projection of risk-neutral scenarios that incorporate a spread reflecting our counterparties’ non-performance risk. The scenario assumptions, at each valuation date, are those we view to be appropriate for a hypothetical market participant and include assumptions for capital markets, lapse, benefit utilization, mortality, risk margin and administrative expenses. These assumptions are based on a combination of historical data and actuarial judgments. The assumption for our own non-performance risk and our counterparties’ non-performance risk for MRBs and ceded MRBs, respectively, are determined at each valuation date and reflect our risk and our counterparties’ risks of not fulfilling the obligations of the underlying liability. The spread for the non-performance risk is added to the discount rates used in determining the fair value from the net cash flows. We believe these assumptions are consistent with those that would be used by a market participant; however, as the related markets develop, we will continue to reassess our assumptions. During the third quarter of each year, we conduct our comprehensive review of the assumptions used in calculating the fair value of these MRBs and update these assumptions on a prospective basis as needed. We may also update these assumptions in other quarters as we become aware of information that is indicative of the need for such an update. For information on fair value inputs, see Note 13. See “Annual Assumption Review” below for more information.

For illustrative purposes, the following presents hypothetical effects to MRBs attributable to changes to key assumptions / inputs, assuming all other factors remain constant:

We use derivative instruments to hedge our exposure to selected risk caused by changes in equity markets and interest rates associated with GLB and GDB riders that are available in our variable annuity products and accounted for as MRBs. Our hedge program focuses on generating sufficient income to fund future claims with a goal of maximizing distributable earnings and explicitly protecting capital. We utilize options and total return swaps on U.S.-based equity indices, and futures on U.S.-based and international equity indices, as well as interest rate futures, interest rate swaps and currency futures. For additional information on our derivatives, see Note 5.

As part of our hedge program, equity market and interest rate conditions are monitored on a daily basis. We rebalance our hedge positions based upon changes in these factors as needed. While we actively manage our hedge positions, these positions may not completely offset changes in the fair value of our GLB and GDB riders caused by movements in these factors due to, among other things, differences in timing between when a market exposure changes and corresponding changes to the hedge positions, extreme swings in the equity markets, interest rates and market-implied volatilities, realized market volatility, policyholder behavior, divergence between the performance of the underlying funds and the hedging indices, divergence between the actual and expected performance of the hedge instruments or our ability to purchase hedging instruments at prices consistent with our desired risk and return trade-off.

The following table presents our after-tax estimates of the potential instantaneous effect to net income (loss) that could result from sudden changes that may occur in equity markets and interest rates (in millions) and excludes the net cost of operating the hedge program. The amounts represent the difference between the change in GLB and GDB riders and the change in the fair value of the underlying hedge instruments. These estimates are based upon the balance as of September 30, 2024, net of reinsurance, and the related hedge instruments in place as of that date.

The effects presented in the table below are not representative of the aggregate impacts that could result if a combination of such changes to equity market returns and interest rates occurred.

The actual effects of the results illustrated in the table above could vary significantly depending on a variety of factors, many of which are out of our control, and consideration should be given to the following:

•The analysis is only valid as of September 30, 2024, due to changing market conditions, policyholder activity, hedge positions and other factors;

•The analysis assumes instantaneous shifts in the capital market factors and no ability to rebalance hedge positions prior to the market changes;

•The analysis assumes constant exchange rates and implied dividend yields;

•Assumptions regarding shifts in the market factors, such as assuming parallel shifts in interest rates, may be overly simplistic and not indicative of actual market behavior in stress scenarios;

•It is very unlikely that one capital market sector (e.g., equity markets) will sustain such a large instantaneous movement without affecting other capital market sectors; and

•The analysis assumes that there is no tracking or basis risk between the funds and/or indices affecting the GLB and GDB riders and the instruments utilized to hedge these exposures.

For additional information on MRBs, see Note 8.

Policyholder Account Balances

Policyholder account balances include the contract value that has accrued to the benefit of the policyholder as of the balance sheet date. This liability includes UL and VUL and investment-type annuity products where account balances are equal to deposits plus interest credited less withdrawals, surrender charges, asset-based fees and policyholder administration charges (collectively known as “policyholder assessments”), as well as amounts representing the fair value of embedded derivative instruments associated with our indexed universal life insurance (“IUL”) and indexed annuity products. During the third quarter of each year, we conduct our comprehensive review of the assumptions and projection models underlying our reserves and embedded derivatives and update assumptions as needed. We may also update these assumptions in other quarters as we become aware of information that is indicative of the need for such an update. See “Annual Assumption Review” below for more information.

Our indexed annuity and IUL contracts permit the holder to elect a fixed interest rate return or a return where interest credited to the contracts is linked to the performance of the S&P 500® Index or other indices. The value of the variable portion of the policyholder’s account balance varies with the performance of the underlying variable funds chosen by the policyholder. Policyholders may elect to rebalance among the various accounts within the product at renewal dates. At the end of each indexed term, which can be up to six years, we have the opportunity to re-price the indexed component by establishing different participation rates, caps, spreads or specified rates, subject to contractual guarantees. We purchase and sell index options that are highly correlated to the portfolio allocation decisions of our policyholders, such that we are economically hedged with respect to equity returns for the current reset period. The mark-to-market of the options held generally offsets the change in value of the embedded derivative within the contract, both of which are recorded as a component of realized gain (loss) on the Consolidated Statements of Comprehensive Income (Loss). The Derivatives and Hedging and the Fair Value Measurements and Disclosures Topics of the Financial Accounting Standards Board Accounting Standards Codification TM

require that we calculate fair values of index options we may purchase or sell in the future to hedge policyholder index allocations in future reset periods. These fair values represent an estimate of the cost of the options we will purchase or sell in the future, discounted back to the date of the balance sheet, using current market indicators of volatility and interest rates. Changes in the fair values of these liabilities are included as a component of realized gain (loss) on the Consolidated Statements of Comprehensive Income (Loss). For more information on indexed product derivative results, see Note 17.

For additional information on the liability for policyholder account balances, see Note 10.

Reinsurance Recoverables

Reinsurance recoverables are generally measured and recognized consistent with the assumptions and methodologies used to project the future performance of the underlying direct business as discussed in the “Future Contract Benefits” and “Policyholder Account Balances” sections above. During the third quarter of each year, we conduct our comprehensive review of the assumptions and projection models and update assumptions as needed. See “Annual Assumption Review” below for more information. In addition, we consider the potential impact of counterparty credit risks related to the reinsurance recoverable by estimating an allowance for credit losses using a probability of loss model approach to estimate expected credit losses for reinsurance recoverables. For additional information on our allowance for credit losses on reinsurance-related assets, see Note 8 in our 2023 Form 10-K.

Annual Assumption Review

During the third quarter of each year, we conduct our comprehensive review of the assumptions and projection models used in estimating MRBs, our reserves and embedded derivatives. For more information on our comprehensive review, see Note 1 in our 2023 Form 10-K. Details underlying the effect to net income (loss) from our annual assumption review (in millions) were as follows:

The impacts of our annual assumption review were driven primarily by the following:

•For Life Insurance, the favorable impact was driven by updates to capital market assumptions on reinsured blocks of MoneyGuard®business and other items, partially offset by unfavorable updates to policyholder behavior assumptions on reinsured blocks of MoneyGuard business.

•For Group Protection, the unfavorable impact was driven by updates to disability claim termination rate assumptions, partially offset by favorable updates to life waiver incurred assumptions.

•For excluded from income (loss) from operations, the favorable impact, related to net annuity product features, was driven by model enhancements.

•For Annuities, the unfavorable impact was driven by updates to mortality assumptions.

•For Life Insurance, the unfavorable impact was driven by updates to policyholder lapse behavior and mortality assumptions, partially offset by the favorable impact of a 50-basis-points increase in our long-term new money investment yield assumption.

•For Group Protection, the favorable impact was driven by updates to long-term disability and life waiver claim termination rate assumptions, partially offset by the unfavorable impact due to updates to long-term disability social security offset assumptions.

•For excluded from income (loss) from operations, the unfavorable impact, related to net annuity product features, was driven by updates to mortality and policyholder lapse behavior assumptions and other items, partially offset by a favorable impact from updates to volatility and policyholder GLB utilization behavior assumptions.

Goodwill

During the fourth quarter of 2024, we will perform our annual quantitative goodwill impairment test as of October 1, 2024, on all of our reporting units. For more information on goodwill, see “Part II – Item 7. Management’s Discussion and Analysis of Financial Condition and Results of Operations – Introduction – Summary of Critical Accounting Estimates – Goodwill and Other Intangible Assets” and Notes 1 and 9 in our 2023 Form 10-K.

Income Taxes

Management uses certain assumptions and estimates in determining the income taxes payable or refundable for the current year, the deferred income tax assets and liabilities for items recognized differently in its financial statements from amounts shown on its income tax returns and the federal income tax expense. Determining these amounts requires analysis and interpretation of current tax laws and regulations. Management exercises judgment in evaluating the amount and timing of recognition of the resulting income tax assets and liabilities. These judgments and estimates are re-evaluated on a continual basis as regulatory and business factors change. Legislative changes to the Internal Revenue Code of 1986, as amended, modifications or new regulations, administrative rulings, or court decisions could increase or decrease our effective tax rate.

The application of GAAP requires us to evaluate the recoverability of our deferred tax assets and establish a valuation allowance, if necessary, to reduce our deferred tax asset to an amount that is more likely than not to be realizable. Judgment and the use of estimates are required in determining whether a valuation allowance is necessary, and if so, the amount of such valuation allowance. In evaluating the need for a valuation allowance, we consider many factors, including: the nature and character of the deferred tax assets and liabilities; taxable income in prior carryback years; future reversals of existing temporary differences; the length of time carryovers can be utilized; and any future prudent and feasible tax planning strategies.

As of September 30, 2024, we had an approximate $1.5 billion deferred tax asset related to net unrealized losses on fixed maturity available-for-sale (“AFS”) securities. In the assessment of the future realizability of this deferred tax asset, management concluded that its tax planning strategy to hold these securities to recovery was prudent and feasible as these unrealized losses were caused by factors other than credit loss, and we have the intent and ability to hold these securities to recovery and collect all of the contractual cash flows.

Although realization is not assured, management believes it is more likely than not that the deferred tax assets, will be realized.

For risks related to establishing a valuation allowance against our deferred tax assets, see “Part I – Item 1A. Risk Factors – Assumptions and Estimates – We may be required to recognize an impairment of our goodwill or to establish a valuation allowance against our deferred tax assets” in our 2023 Form 10-K.

For additional information on income taxes, see “Part II – Item 7. Management’s Discussion and Analysis of Financial Condition and Results of Operations – Introduction – Summary of Critical Accounting Estimates – Income Taxes” and Note 23 in our 2023 Form 10-K and Note 18 herein.