ELI LILLY & Co

(Tables present dollars in millions, except per-share data)

General

Management's discussion and analysis of results of operations and financial condition is intended to assist the reader in understanding and assessing significant changes and trends related to our results of operations and financial position. This discussion and analysis should be read in conjunction with the consolidated condensed financial statements and accompanying footnotes in Part I, Item 1 of this Quarterly Report on Form 10-Q. Certain statements in this Part I, Item 2 of this Quarterly Report on Form 10-Q constitute forward-looking statements. Various risks and uncertainties, including those discussed in "Forward-Looking Statements" in this Quarterly Report on Form 10-Q and "Risk Factors" in Part I, Item 1A of our Annual Report on Form 10-K for the year ended December 31, 2023, may cause our actual results, financial position, and cash generated from operations to differ from these forward-looking statements.

EXECUTIVE OVERVIEW

This section provides an overview of our financial results, late-stage pipeline developments, and other matters affecting our company and the pharmaceutical industry.

Financial Results

The following table summarizes certain financial information:

Revenue increased for the three months ended March 31, 2024 driven by increased volume and higher realized prices. The increase in revenue during the three months ended March 31, 2024 was primarily driven by increased sales of Mounjaro®, Zepbound®, Verzenio®, and Jardiance®, partially offset by decreased sales of Trulicity®. Strong demand for our incretin medicines outpaced supply increases.

Net income and earnings per share for the three months ended March 31, 2024 increased primarily due to increased revenue, partially offset by increased research and development expenses and marketing, selling, and administrative expenses.

See "Results of Operations" for additional information.

Late-Stage Pipeline

Our long-term success depends on our ability to continually discover or acquire, develop, and commercialize innovative new medicines. We currently have approximately 50 new medicine candidates in clinical development or under regulatory review, and a larger number of projects in the discovery phase.

The following select new molecular entities (NMEs) and new indication line extension (NILEX) products are currently in Phase 2 or Phase 3 clinical trials or have been submitted for regulatory review or have recently received regulatory approval in the United States (U.S.), European Union (EU), or Japan. The table reflects the status of these NMEs and NILEX products, including certain other developments since our Annual Report on Form 10-K for the year ended December 31, 2023.

(1)In collaboration with Boehringer Ingelheim.

(2)Fast Track designation is designed to facilitate the development and expedite the review of medicines to treat serious conditions and fill an unmet medical need.

(3)In collaboration with Almirall, S.A. in Europe.

(4) Breakthrough Therapy designation is designed to expedite the development and review of potential medicines that are intended to treat a serious condition where preliminary clinical evidence indicates that the treatment may demonstrate substantial improvement over available therapy on a clinically significant endpoint.

(5) Continued approval may be contingent on verification and description of clinical benefit in confirmatory Phase 3 trials.

Other Matters

Patent Matters

We depend on patents or other forms of intellectual property protection for most of our revenue, cash flows, and earnings.

See Note 9 to the consolidated condensed financial statements for a description of legal proceedings currently pending regarding certain of our patents and "Business—Patents, Trademarks, and Other Intellectual Property Rights" in Part I, Item 1 of our Annual Report on Form 10-K for the year ended December 31, 2023 for a discussion of the impacts of trends involving intellectual property on our business and results.

Trends Affecting Pharmaceutical Pricing, Reimbursement, and Access and Certain Other Regulatory Developments

Reforms, including those that may stem from political initiatives, periods of uneven economic growth or downturns, or as a result of high inflation, the emergence or escalation of, and responses to, international tension and conflicts, or government budgeting priorities, are expected to continue to result in added pressure on pricing and reimbursement for our products.

Global concern over access to and affordability of pharmaceutical products continues to drive regulatory and legislative debate and action, as well as worldwide cost containment efforts by governmental authorities. Such measures include the use of mandated discounts, price reporting requirements, mandated reference prices, restrictive formularies, changes to available intellectual property protections, as well as other efforts. In August 2022, the U.S. government enacted the Inflation Reduction Act of 2022 (IRA). Among other measures, the IRA requires the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services (HHS) to effectively set prices for certain single-source drugs and biologics reimbursed under Medicare Part B and Part D. Generally, these government prices apply nine years (for medicines approved under a New Drug Application) or thirteen years (for medicines approved under a Biologics License Application) following initial FDA approval and will be set at a price that is likely to represent a significant discount from existing average prices to wholesalers and direct purchasers. While the law specifies a ceiling price, it does not set a minimum or floor price. In August 2023, the HHS selected Jardiance, which is part of our collaboration with Boehringer Ingelheim, as one of the first ten medicines subject to government-set prices effective in 2026. Given our product portfolio, we expect additional significant products will be selected in future years, which would have the effect of accelerating revenue erosion prior to expiry of exclusivities. The effect of reducing prices and reimbursement for certain of our products would significantly impact our business and consolidated results of operations.

Other IRA provisions require drug manufacturers to provide rebates for Medicare Part B and Part D medicines under certain circumstances. Also, the Part D benefit redesign will replace the Part D Coverage Gap Discount Program with a new manufacturer discount program. Manufacturers that fail to comply with the IRA may be subject to various penalties, including civil monetary penalties, which could be significant.

The IRA has and will meaningfully influence our business strategies and those of our competitors. In particular, the nine-year timeline to set prices for medicines approved under a New Drug Application reduces the attractiveness of investment in small molecule innovation. The IRA can cause changes to development approach and timing and investments at-risk. The full impact of the IRA on our business and the pharmaceutical industry, including the implications to us of a competitor's product being selected for price setting, remains uncertain.

Additional policies, regulations, legislation, or enforcement, including those proposed or pursued by the U.S. Congress, the U.S. executive branch, and regulatory authorities worldwide, could adversely impact our business and consolidated results of operations. For example, the proposed BIOSECURE Act in the U.S. would affect elements of the pharmaceutical supply chain, although as currently written we do not anticipate it would have a material impact on our business.

Consolidation and integration of private payors and pharmacy benefit managers in the U.S. has also significantly impacted the market for pharmaceuticals by increasing payor leverage in negotiating manufacturer price or rebate concessions and pharmacy reimbursement rates. Furthermore, restrictive or unfavorable pricing, coverage, or reimbursement determinations for our medicines or product candidates by governments, regulatory agencies, courts, or private payers may adversely impact our business and consolidated results of operations. We expect that these actions may intensify and could particularly affect certain products, which could adversely affect our business. In addition, we are engaged in litigation and investigations related to the 340B program, access to insulin, pricing, product safety, and other matters that, if resolved adversely to us, could negatively impact our business and consolidated results of operations. It is not currently possible to predict the overall potential adverse impact to us or the general pharmaceutical industry of continued cost containment efforts worldwide.

In addition, regulatory issues concerning compliance with current Good Manufacturing Practices, quality assurance, safety signals, evolving standards, and increased scrutiny around excipients and potential impurities such as nitrosamines, and similar regulations and standards (and comparable foreign regulations and standards) for our products in some cases lead to regulatory and legal actions, product recalls and seizures, fines and penalties, interruption of production leading to product shortages, import bans or denials of import certifications, inability to realize the benefit of capital expenditures, or delays or denials in new product approvals, line extensions or supplemental approvals of current products pending resolution of the issues, or other negative impacts, any of which result in reputational harm or adversely affect our business. Moreover, increased focus on business combinations across industries and jurisdictions can lead to impediments to the completion of business combinations.

See "Business—Regulations and Private Payer Actions Affecting Pharmaceutical Pricing, Reimbursement, and Access" in Part I, Item 1 and "Risk Factors" in Part I, Item 1A of our Annual Report on Form 10-K for the year ended December 31, 2023. See also Note 9 to the consolidated condensed financial statements.

Product Supply

Demand for our incretin medicines has exceeded production. We expect tight supply to continue as growing production volume is outpaced by demand. In the short to mid-term, we expect sales growth for incretin medicines to primarily be a function of the quantity we can produce and ship. Among other measures to manage tight supply, in international markets we have communicated with healthcare practitioners to not start new patients on Trulicity in order to minimize disruption to existing patients. Supply considerations have also influenced the timing of tirzepatide launches in new markets. We continue to expand manufacturing capacity and progress efforts to bring tirzepatide to patients in various countries via different delivery presentations, such as single-use vials and multi-use pens. The most significant production increases in 2024 are expected in the second half of the year with additional capacity expected to be operational over the next several years.

Tax Matters

We are subject to income taxes and various other taxes in the U.S. and in many foreign jurisdictions; therefore, changes in both domestic and international tax laws or regulations have affected and may affect our effective tax rate, results of operations, and cash flows. The U.S. and countries around the world are actively proposing and enacting tax law changes. Further, actions taken with respect to tax-related matters by associations such as the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) and the European Commission could influence tax laws in countries in which we operate. Tax authorities in the U.S. and other jurisdictions in which we do business routinely examine our tax returns and are expected to increase their scrutiny of cross-border tax issues. Changes to existing U.S. and foreign tax laws and increased scrutiny by tax authorities in the U.S. and other jurisdictions could adversely impact our future consolidated results of operations and cash flows.

In response to the OECD/G20 Inclusive Framework on Base Erosion and Profit Shifting (Framework), which set forth a two-pillar solution to reform the international tax framework, and the EU's adoption of Directive 2022/2523 (known as "Pillar Two") (Directive) within the EU to implement the Framework, multiple countries, both within and outside of the EU, have enacted legislation that provides for a minimum level of taxation of multinational companies. The Directive required EU member states to enact legislation effective for years beginning on or after December 31, 2023. For certain provisions within the Framework, the OECD published guidance during 2023 that extends the effective dates for enactment. While we expect an increase in future years’ tax expense as a result of the global minimum tax, we do not anticipate a material impact to our 2024 consolidated results of operations. Our assessment of the impact for 2024 and subsequent years could be affected by legislative guidance, future enactment of additional provisions within the Pillar Two framework, and U.S. tax changes scheduled to occur in 2026 as part of the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (2017 Tax Act).

A bipartisan tax bill, the Tax Relief for American Families and Workers Act, was passed by the U.S. House of Representatives in January 2024. The bill contains certain business tax provisions including the retroactive repeal for 2022 and 2023 and deferral of the requirement to capitalize U.S. research and development expenses for tax purposes that was a provision enacted in the 2017 Tax Act. Uncertainty exists as to whether the bill will be enacted into law; however, if the bill is enacted as currently drafted, we would expect our effective tax rate for 2024 to be moderately higher, and a net discrete tax detriment in the quarter of enactment related to 2022 and 2023. In addition, we would expect a decrease in cash tax payments.

Acquisitions

We invest in external research and technologies that we believe complement and strengthen our own efforts. These investments can take many forms, including acquisitions, collaborations, investments, and licensing arrangements. We view our business development activity as a way to enhance or refine our pipeline and strengthen our business.

See Note 3 to the consolidated condensed financial statements for further discussion regarding our recent acquisitions.

Foreign Currency Exchange Rates

As a global company, we face foreign currency risk exposure from fluctuating currency exchange rates, primarily the U.S. dollar against the euro, Japanese yen, and Chinese yuan. While we seek to manage a portion of these exposures through hedging and other risk management techniques, significant fluctuations in currency rates can have a material impact, either positive or negative, on our consolidated results of operations in any given period. There is uncertainty in the future movements in foreign currency exchange rates, and fluctuations in these rates could adversely impact our consolidated results of operations and cash flows.

Other Factors

Other factors have had, and may continue to have, an impact on our consolidated results of operations. These factors include cost and wage inflation, availability of adequate capacity in global transportation, supply chain and labor market complexities, international tension and conflicts, uneven economic growth or downturns or uncertainty, and an increase in overall demand in our industry for certain products and materials.

See "Risk Factors" in Part I, Item 1A of our Annual Report on Form 10-K for the year ended December 31, 2023 for additional information on risk factors that could impact our business and operations.