HUNTINGTON BANCSHARES INC MD

Credit risk is the risk of financial loss if a counterparty is not able to meet the agreed upon terms of the financial obligation. The majority of our credit risk is associated with lending activities, as the acceptance and management of credit risk is central to profitable lending. We also have credit risk associated with our investment securities portfolios (see Note 3 - “Investment Securities and Other Securities” of the Notes to the Unaudited Consolidated Financial Statements). We engage with other financial counterparties for a variety of purposes including investing, asset and liability management, mortgage banking, and trading activities. A variety of derivative financial instruments, principally interest rate swaps, caps, swaptions, swaption collars, floors, forward contracts, and forward starting interest rate swaps, are used in asset and liability management activities to protect against the risk of adverse price or interest rate movements. We also use derivatives, principally loan sale commitments, in hedging our mortgage loan interest rate lock commitments and mortgage loans held for sale. While there is credit risk associated with derivative activity, we believe this exposure is minimal.

We focus on the early identification, monitoring, and management of all aspects of our credit risk. In addition to the traditional credit risk mitigation strategies of credit policies and processes, market risk management activities, and portfolio diversification, we use quantitative measurement capabilities that utilize external data sources, enhanced modeling technology, and internal stress testing processes. Our disciplined portfolio management processes are central to our commitment to maintaining an aggregate moderate-to-low, through-the-cycle risk appetite. In our efforts to identify risk mitigation techniques, we have focused on product design features, origination policies, and solutions for delinquent or stressed borrowers.

Loan and Lease Credit Exposure Mix

Refer to the “Loan and Lease Credit Exposure Mix” section of our 2023 Annual Report on Form 10-K for a description of each portfolio segment.

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At September 30, 2024, our loans and leases totaled $126.4 billion, representing a $4.4 billion, or 4%, increase compared to $122.0 billion at December 31, 2023.

The table below provides the composition of our total loan and lease portfolio:

Our loan and lease portfolio is a managed mix of consumer and commercial credits. We manage the overall credit exposure and portfolio composition via a credit concentration policy. The policy designates specific loan types, collateral types, and loan structures to be formally tracked and assigned maximum exposure limits as a percentage of capital. Commercial lending by NAICS categories, specific limits for CRE project types, loans secured by residential real estate, large dollar exposures, and designated high risk loan categories represent examples of specifically tracked components of our concentration management process. There are no identified concentrations that exceed the assigned exposure limit. Our concentration management policy is approved by the ROC and is used to ensure a high quality, well-diversified portfolio that is consistent with our overall objective of maintaining an aggregate moderate-to-low, through-the-cycle risk appetite. Changes to existing concentration limits, incorporating specific information relating to the potential impact on the overall portfolio composition and performance metrics, require the approval of the ROC prior to implementation.

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The table below provides our total loan and lease portfolio segregated by industry type:

(1) Non-real estate secured commercial loans to REITs, which are classified in the C&I loan category, are included in the real estate, finance and insurance, and health care industry types.

(2) Amounts include $4.1 billion and $3.3 billion of auto dealer services loans at September 30, 2024 and December 31, 2023, respectively.

The following tables present our commercial real estate portfolio by property-type and geographic location.

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(1) Geographic location based on location of underlying collateral.

Our CRE portfolio totaled $11.5 billion at September 30, 2024, a decrease of $879 million, or 7%, compared to December 31, 2023, driven by loan pay-offs and low demand for new originations. The CRE portfolio had an associated allowance coverage of 4.4% and 4.2% at September 30, 2024 and December 31, 2023, respectively.

With remote work options leading to increased vacancy rates and underutilization of office space across the country, the office sector continues to be an area of uncertainty. Our office portfolio, which is predominantly suburban and multi-tenant loans, totaled $1.6 billion, or 1% of total loans and leases, as of September 30, 2024, compared to $1.8 billion, or 1% of total loans and leases, at December 31, 2023. We have established ACL reserves of approximately 11% for our CRE office portfolio as of September 30, 2024, compared to approximately 10% at December 31, 2023. At September 30, 2024, there was $31 million of outstanding balances in the office portfolio that were 30 or more days past due.

Credit Quality

(This section should be read in conjunction with Note 4 - “Loans and Leases” and Note 5 - “Allowance for Credit Losses” of the Notes to Unaudited Consolidated Financial Statements.)

We believe the most meaningful way to assess overall credit quality performance is through an analysis of specific performance ratios. This approach forms the basis of the discussion in the sections immediately following: NPAs, NALs, ACL, and NCOs. In addition, we utilize delinquency rates, risk distribution and migration patterns, product segmentation, and origination trends in the analysis of our credit quality performance.

Credit quality performance in the third quarter of 2024 reflected NCOs of $93 million, or 0.30% of average total loans and leases, annualized, an increase of $20 million, compared to $73 million, or 0.24%, in the year-ago quarter. The increase reflects an $11 million increase in consumer NCOs to $39 million and a $9 million increase in commercial NCOs to $54 million in the third quarter of 2024. NPAs increased from December 31, 2023 by $73 million, or 10%, primarily driven by a $64 million increase in commercial and industrial NALs.

NPAs and NALs

Commercial loans and leases are placed on nonaccrual status at 90-days past due, or earlier if repayment of principal and interest is in doubt. Of the $549 million of commercial related NALs at September 30, 2024, $267 million, or 49%, represented loans and leases that were less than 30-days past due, demonstrating our continued commitment to proactive credit risk management.

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The following table reflects period-end NALs and NPAs detail:

(1) Other nonperforming assets include certain impaired investment securities and/or nonaccrual loans held-for-sale.

(2) Nonperforming assets divided by the sum of loans and leases, other real estate owned, and other NPAs.

ACL

The baseline scenario used in the September 30, 2024 ACL determination assumes the labor market has softened with the unemployment rate peaking at 4.2% in the third quarter of this year. Marginal improvement is expected moving forward with unemployment returning to 4.0% by 2026. The Federal Reserve is projected to enter into a cycle of rate cuts, with regular cuts forecast throughout the remainder of 2024 through 2026 until reaching 3% by 2027. Inflation is forecasted to approach the Federal Reserve’s target level of 2% by the end of 2024 and stabilize in 2025. The GDP is forecasted to continue to slow from 1.8% in the third quarter to 1.5% by the end of 2024. GDP is then forecasted to show marginal improvement throughout 2025, ending the fourth quarter of 2025 at 1.7%.

Management uses a probability-weighted approach that incorporates a baseline, an adverse, and a more favorable economic scenario when formulating the quantitative estimate for the allowance. The table below is intended to show how the forecasted path of unemployment and GDP in the baseline scenario has changed since the end of 2023:

(1) Values reflect the baseline scenario forecast inputs for each period presented, not updated for subsequent actual amounts.

Management continues to assess the uncertainty in the macroeconomic environment, including ongoing risks in the commercial real estate environment, current inflation levels, political uncertainty, and geopolitical instability, considering multiple macroeconomic forecasts that reflect a range of possible outcomes. While we have incorporated estimates of economic uncertainty into our ACL, the ultimate impact that specific challenges will have on the economy remains unknown, including those related to the commercial real estate industry, recent inflation levels, higher interest rates, and the significant conflicts on-going around the world.

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Management develops additional analytics to support adjustments to our modeled results. Our Allowance for Credit Loss Development Methodology Committee reviewed model results of each economic scenario for appropriate usage, concluding that the quantitative transaction reserve will continue to utilize scenario weighting. Given the uncertainty associated with key economic scenario assumptions, the September 30, 2024 ACL included a general reserve that consists of various risk profile components, including profiles to capture uncertainty not addressed within the quantitative transaction reserve.

Our ACL evaluation process includes the on-going assessment of credit quality metrics and a comparison of certain ACL benchmarks to current performance.

The table below reflects the allocation of our ALLL among our various loan and lease categories as well as certain coverage metrics of the reported ALLL and ACL:

(1)Percentages represent the percentage of each loan and lease category to total loans and leases.

The ACL was $2.4 billion, or 1.93% of total loans and leases, at September 30, 2024, compared to $2.4 billion, or 1.97% of total loans and leases, at December 31, 2023. The marginal absolute increase in the total ACL was driven by loan and lease portfolio growth during the first nine months of 2024. The reduction in the ACL coverage ratio at September 30, 2024 is reflective of the current macro-economic environment and changes in various risk profiles intended to capture uncertainty not addressed within the quantitative reserve.

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NCOs

The table below reflects NCO detail for each of the periods presented:

NCOs were an annualized 0.30% of average loans and leases in the third quarter of 2024, up from 0.24% in the year-ago quarter, reflecting the continued normalization of net charge-offs. NCOs for commercial loans and leases and consumer loans were higher, with annualized commercial loan and lease NCOs of 0.31% in the third quarter of 2024, compared to 0.27% in the year-ago quarter, and annualized consumer loan NCOs of 0.28% in the third quarter of 2024, compared to 0.21% in the year-ago quarter.

NCOs were an annualized 0.30% of average loans and leases for the first nine-month period of 2024, up from 0.20% in the year ago period. NCOs for the commercial loans and leases and consumer loans were higher, with annualized commercial loan and lease NCOs of 0.32% in the current period, compared to 0.20% in the year-ago period, and annualized consumer loan NCOs of 0.27% in the current period, compared to 0.20% in the year-ago period.

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