HUNTINGTON BANCSHARES INC MD

Market risk refers to potential losses arising from changes in interest rates, foreign exchange rates, equity prices, and commodity prices, including the correlation among these factors and their volatility. When the value of an instrument is tied to such external factors, the holder faces market risk. We are primarily exposed to interest rate risk as a result of offering a wide array of financial products to our customers, and secondarily, to price risk from trading securities, securities owned by our broker-dealer subsidiaries, foreign exchange positions, equity investments, and investments in securities backed by mortgage loans.

We measure market risk exposure via financial simulation models, which provide management with insights on the potential impact to net interest income and other key metrics as a result of changes in market interest rates. Models are used to simulate cash flows and accrual characteristics of the balance sheet based on assumptions regarding the slope or shape of the yield curve, the direction and volatility of interest rates, and the changing composition and characteristics of the balance sheet resulting from strategic objectives and customer behavior. Our models incorporate market-based assumptions that include the impact of changing interest rates on prepayment rates of assets and runoff of deposits. The models also include our projections of the future volume and pricing of various business lines.

In measuring the financial risks associated with interest rate sensitivity in our balance sheet, we compare a set of alternative interest rate scenarios to the results of a base case scenario derived using market forward rates. The market forward rates reflect the market consensus regarding the future level and slope of the yield curve across a range of tenor points. The standard set of interest rate scenarios includes two types: “shock” scenarios which are immediate parallel rate shifts, and “ramp” scenarios where the parallel shift is applied gradually over the first 12 months of the forecast on a pro rata basis. In both shock and ramp scenarios with falling rates, we presume that market rates will not go below 0%. The scenarios are inclusive of all executed interest rate risk hedging activities. Forward starting hedges are included to the extent that they have been transacted and that they start within the measurement horizon.

A key driver of our interest rate risk profile is our interest-bearing deposit repricing sensitivity assumptions to changes in interest rates, otherwise known as deposit beta. In addition, our interest expense is impacted by the composition of both interest-bearing and noninterest-bearing deposits in relation to our total deposits. Accordingly, we consider the impacts from both interest-bearing and noninterest bearing deposits on our total deposit beta. Our cumulative to-date total deposit beta (total cost of deposits) is 41% within the current rate cycle, which started in March 2022.

Interest rate risk is measured across a range of scenarios and the results are reported to the ROC at least quarterly. A comprehensive discussion of risk management governance can be found in Item 7: Management’s Discussion and Analysis of Financial Condition and Results of Operations and the “Risk Governance” section of this Form 10-K.

We use two approaches to model interest rate risk: Net interest income at risk (NII at risk) and economic value of equity at risk modeling sensitivity analysis (EVE at Risk).

NII at Risk is used by management to measure the risk and impact to earnings over the next 12 months, using a variety of interest rate scenarios. The NII at Risk results included in the table below reflect the analysis used monthly by management. It models gradual “ramp” -200, -100, +100 and +200 basis point parallel shift scenarios implied by the forward yield curve over the next 12 months.

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(1)Represents the upper bound.

(2)Represents the spot federal funds rate.

(3)Represents the federal funds rate in month 12 given a gradual, parallel “ramp” relative to the base implied forward scenario.

The NII at Risk shows that the balance sheet is asset sensitive at both December 31, 2023 and December 31, 2022. The primary drivers to the change in sensitivity during 2023 include changes in the projected composition and characteristics of the balance sheet, pricing assumptions, hedging activity, and the evolution of market rates over the next 12 months.

EVE at Risk is used by management to measure the impact of interest rate changes on the net present value of assets and liabilities, including derivative exposures. The EVE results included in the table below reflect the analysis used monthly by management. It models immediate -200, -100, +100 and +200 basis point parallel “shock” scenarios from the yield curve term points at the specific point in time that EVE sensitivity is measured.

The change in sensitivity from December 31, 2022 was driven primarily by changes in the composition and characteristics of the balance sheet, routine enhancements to deposit and prepayment modeling assumptions, changes in hedging activity aligned with interest rate risk positioning through macroeconomic cycles, and market rates.

To address the discontinuance of LIBOR, we established a LIBOR transition team and project plan under the oversight of the CRO and CFO, providing periodic updates to the ROC. Contract remediation efforts coordinated by the LIBOR transition team were complete as of June 2023. Upon the discontinuation of LIBOR, loans and leases that referenced LIBOR were transitioned to a SOFR-based replacement rate as set forth in the related contract. For further details on the transition of notional derivatives, refer to the Use of Derivatives to Manage Interest Rate Risk section below.

Use of Derivatives to Manage Interest Rate Risk

An integral component of our interest rate risk management strategy is the use of derivative instruments to minimize significant fluctuations in earnings caused by changes in market interest rates. Examples of derivative instruments that we may use as part of our interest rate risk management strategy include interest rate swaps, caps and floors, collars, forward contracts, and forward starting interest rate swaps.

Table 17 shows all swap, swaption, swaption collar and floor positions that are utilized for purposes of managing our exposures to the variability of interest rates. The interest rates variability may impact either the fair value of the assets and liabilities or impact the cash flows attributable to net interest margin. These positions are used to protect the fair value of asset and liabilities by converting the contractual interest rate on a specified amount of assets and liabilities (i.e., notional amounts) to another interest rate index. The positions are also used to hedge the variability in cash flows attributable to the contractually specified interest rate by converting the variable rate index into a fixed rate. The volume, maturity, and mix of derivative positions change frequently as we adjust our broader interest rate risk management objectives and the balance sheet positions to be hedged. For further information, including the notional amount and fair values of these derivatives, refer to Note 20 - “Derivative Financial Instruments” of the Notes to Consolidated Financial Statements.

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The following presents additional information about the interest rate swaps, swaptions, swaption collars, and floors used in Huntington’s asset and liability management activities.

(1)Amounts include interest rate swaps as fair value hedges of fixed-rate investment securities using the portfolio layer method.

(2)Forward starting swaps effective starting from April 2025 to October 2027.

(3)Forward starting swaps effective starting from April 2024 to March 2025.

(4)The weighted average fixed rates for floor spread and swaption collars are the weighted average strike rates for the upper and lower bounds of the instruments.

(5)Basis swaps have variable pay and variable receive resets. Weighted average fixed fate column represents pay rate reset.

(6)Forward starting swaps effective starting from January 2023 to February 2023.

(7)Forward starting swaps effective starting from January 2023 to October 2027.

(8)Forward starting swaps effective starting from January 2023 to July 2024.

During the year ended December 31, 2023, we purchased interest rate swaptions to reduce the impact on capital from rising rates. These swaptions were economic hedges of interest rate risk attributable to our investment securities with the change in value of these instruments recorded in other noninterest income. We terminated these positions during the 2023 fourth quarter. Cumulatively for the full-year, the net unfavorable mark-to-market on the pay-fixed swaptions program totaled $24 million.

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In the second quarter of 2023, all cleared derivatives that referenced LIBOR transitioned from LIBOR to a SOFR-based replacement rate in accordance with the conventions established by the applicable clearinghouse. Upon the discontinuation of LIBOR, all over-the-counter derivatives that referenced LIBOR were transitioned to a SOFR-based replacement rate as set forth in the related contract. Those derivatives that did not have a clearly defined or practicable replacement benchmark rate set forth in the related contract used the LIBOR Act to replace LIBOR with a SOFR-based rate established by FRB rulemaking. For every LIBOR referenced instrument with a reset date after the LIBOR cessation date, counterparties received a LIBOR referenced instrument maturing on the first reset date after the LIBOR cessation date, and a forward starting SOFR instrument. The instruments received through the transition were economically similar to the instruments held prior to the transition.

Use of Derivatives to Manage Credit Risk

We may utilize credit derivatives as a tool to manage credit risk within the portfolio by purchasing credit protection over certain types of loan products. When we purchase credit protection, such as a CDS, we pay a fee to the seller, or CDS counterparty, in return for the right to receive a payment if a specified credit event occurs. During the fourth quarter of 2023, we completed a synthetic CRT transaction consisting of a CDS to mitigate credit risk associated with a $3 billion portfolio of on-balance sheet prime indirect auto loans and which benefited our regulatory capital ratios by reducing the RWA on the associated pool of loans by approximately $2.4 billion.

MSRs

(This section should be read in conjunction with Note 7 - “Mortgage Loan Sales and Servicing Rights” of Notes to Consolidated Financial Statements.)

At December 31, 2023, we had a total of $515 million of capitalized MSRs representing the right to service $33.2 billion in mortgage loans.

MSR fair values are sensitive to movements in interest rates as expected future net servicing income depends on the projected outstanding principal balances of the underlying loans, which can be reduced by prepayments and declines in credit quality. Prepayments usually increase when mortgage interest rates decline and decrease when mortgage interest rates rise. We also employ hedging strategies to reduce the risk of MSR fair value changes or impairment. However, volatile changes in interest rates can diminish the effectiveness of these economic hedges. We report changes in the MSR value net of hedge-related trading activity in the mortgage banking income category of noninterest income.

MSR assets are included in servicing rights and other intangible assets in the Consolidated Financial Statements.

Price Risk

Price risk represents the risk of loss arising from adverse movements in the prices of financial instruments that are carried at fair value and are subject to fair value accounting. We have price risk from trading securities, securities owned by our broker-dealer subsidiaries, foreign exchange positions, derivative instruments, and equity investments. We have established loss limits on the trading portfolio, on the amount of foreign exchange exposure that can be maintained, and on the amount of marketable equity securities that can be held.