FIFTH THIRD BANCORP

Credit risk management utilizes a framework that encompasses consistent processes for identifying, assessing, managing, monitoring and reporting credit risk. These processes are supported by a credit risk governance structure that includes Board oversight, policies, risk limits and risk committees.

The objective of the Bancorp’s credit risk management strategy is to quantify and manage credit risk on an aggregate portfolio basis, as well as to limit the risk of loss resulting from the failure of a borrower or counterparty to honor its financial or contractual obligations to the Bancorp. The Bancorp’s credit risk management strategy is based on three core principles: conservatism, diversification and monitoring. The Bancorp believes that effective credit risk management begins with conservative lending practices which are described below. These practices include the use of intentional risk-based limits for single name exposures and counterparty selection criteria designed to reduce or eliminate exposure to borrowers who have higher than average default risk and defined weaknesses in financial performance. The Bancorp carefully designs and monitors underwriting, documentation and collection standards. The Bancorp’s credit risk management strategy also emphasizes diversification on a geographic, industry, product and customer level as well as ongoing portfolio monitoring and timely management reviews of large credit exposures and credits experiencing deterioration of credit quality. Credit officers with the authority to extend credit are delegated specific authority based on risk and exposure amount, the use of which is closely monitored. Underwriting activities are centrally managed, and Credit Risk Management manages the policy and the authority delegation process directly. The Credit Risk Review function provides independent and objective assessments of the quality of underwriting and documentation, the accuracy of risk ratings and the charge-off, nonaccrual and reserve analysis process. The Bancorp’s credit review process and overall assessment of the adequacy of the ACL is based on quarterly assessments of the estimated losses expected in the loan and lease portfolio. The Bancorp uses these assessments to maintain an adequate ACL and record any necessary charge-offs. Certain loans and leases with probable or observed credit weaknesses receive enhanced monitoring and undergo a periodic review. Refer to Note 6 of the Notes to Condensed Consolidated Financial Statements for further information on the Bancorp’s credit rating categories, which are derived from standard regulatory rating definitions. In addition, stress testing is performed on various commercial and consumer portfolios utilizing various models. For certain portfolios, such as real estate and leveraged lending, stress testing is performed at the individual loan level during credit underwriting.

In addition to the individual review of larger commercial loans that exhibit probable or observed credit weaknesses, the commercial credit review process includes the use of two risk rating systems. The first of these risk rating systems is based on regulatory guidance for credit risk rating systems. These ratings are used by the Bancorp to monitor and manage its credit risk. The Bancorp also separately maintains a dual risk rating system for credit approval and pricing, portfolio monitoring and capital allocation that includes a “through-the-cycle” rating philosophy for assessing a borrower’s creditworthiness. This “through-the-cycle” rating philosophy uses a grading scale that assigns ratings based on average default rates through an entire business cycle for borrowers with similar financial performance. The dual risk rating system includes thirteen categories for estimating probabilities of default and an additional eleven categories for estimating losses given an event of default. The probability of default and loss given default evaluations are not separated in the regulatory risk rating system.

The Bancorp utilizes internally developed models to estimate expected credit losses for portfolio loans and leases. For loans and leases that are collectively evaluated, the Bancorp utilizes these models to forecast expected credit losses over a reasonable and supportable forecast period based on the probability of a loan or lease defaulting, the expected balance at the estimated date of default and the expected loss percentage given a default. Refer to Note 1 of the Notes to Consolidated Financial Statements included in the Bancorp’s Annual Report on Form 10-K for the year ended December 31, 2023 for additional information about the Bancorp’s processes for developing these models, for estimating credit losses for periods beyond the reasonable and supportable forecast period and for estimating credit losses for individually evaluated loans.

For the commercial portfolio segment, the estimated probabilities of default are primarily based on the probability of default ratings assigned under the dual risk rating system and historical observations of how those ratings migrate to a default over time in the context of macroeconomic conditions. For loans with available credit, the estimate of the expected balance at the time of default considers expected utilization rates, which are primarily based on macroeconomic conditions and the utilization history of similar borrowers under those economic conditions. The estimates for loss severity are primarily based on collateral type and coverage levels and the susceptibility of those characteristics to changes in macroeconomic conditions.

For collectively evaluated loans in the consumer and residential mortgage portfolio segments, the Bancorp’s expected credit loss models primarily utilize the borrower’s FICO score and delinquency history in combination with macroeconomic conditions when estimating the probability of default. The estimates for loss severity are primarily based on collateral type and coverage levels and the susceptibility of those

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characteristics to changes in macroeconomic conditions. The expected balance at the estimated date of default is also especially impactful in the expected credit loss models for portfolio classes which generally have longer terms (such as residential mortgage loans and home equity) and portfolio classes containing a high concentration of loans with revolving privileges (such as home equity). The estimate of the expected balance at the time of default considers expected prepayment and utilization rates where applicable, which are primarily based on macroeconomic conditions and the utilization history of similar borrowers under those economic conditions. The Bancorp also utilizes various scoring systems, analytical tools and portfolio performance monitoring processes to assess the credit risk of the consumer and residential mortgage portfolios.

Overview

During the first quarter of 2024, economic growth remained resilient as strong job growth, improved capital markets activity and fiscal deficit spending supported above-trend economic growth while the downward trend in inflation reversed, driven by acceleration in inflation for services. With the FOMC less likely to cut rates in the near-term, market expectations for rate cuts this year shifted from seven in mid-January 2024 to three by the end of the first quarter of 2024. The FOMC continues to seek a soft landing for the economy while balancing the risks of cutting rates too soon and allowing price pressures to become entrenched against the risks associated with maintaining a restrictive policy for too long.

Going forward, it is unclear whether inflation can return sustainably to the FOMC’s long-run target of 2% without an extended period of tighter monetary policy leading to below-potential growth and a softer labor market. The risk remains that inflation may be more persistent than expected by the FOMC and financial markets. Geopolitical tensions remain elevated and have the potential to become very disruptive to the economic outlook if they continue to escalate. Against this backdrop, tighter liquidity in the banking sector is limiting the supply of credit in the economy. Over time, these factors may adversely impact business investment, job growth and consumer spending, potentially leading to a downturn in the economy.

Commercial Portfolio

The Bancorp’s credit risk management strategy seeks to minimize concentrations of risk through diversification. The Bancorp has commercial loan concentration limits based on industry, lines of business within the commercial segment, geography and credit product type. The risk within the commercial loan and lease portfolio is managed and monitored through an underwriting process utilizing detailed origination policies, continuous loan level reviews, monitoring of industry concentration and product type limits and continuous portfolio risk management reporting.

The Bancorp is closely monitoring various economic factors and their impacts on commercial borrowers, including, but not limited to, the level of inflation, higher-for-longer interest rates, labor and supply chain issues, volatility and changes in consumer discretionary spending patterns, including debt and default levels. The Bancorp maintains focus on disciplined client selection, adherence to underwriting policy and attention to concentrations.

The Bancorp provides loans to a variety of customers ranging from large multinational firms to middle market businesses, sole proprietors and high net worth individuals. The origination policies for commercial and industrial loans outline the risks and underwriting requirements for loans to businesses in various industries. Included in the policies are maturity and amortization terms, collateral and leverage requirements, cash flow coverage measures and hold limits. The Bancorp aligns credit and sales teams with specific industry and regional expertise to better monitor and manage different industry and geographic segments of the portfolio.

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The following table provides detail on commercial loans and leases by industry classification (as defined by the North American Industry Classification System), by loan size and by state, illustrating the diversity and granularity of the Bancorp’s commercial loans and leases as of:

The origination policies for commercial real estate outline the risks and underwriting requirements for owner and nonowner-occupied and construction lending. Included in the policies are maturity and amortization terms, maximum LTVs, minimum debt service coverage ratios, construction loan monitoring procedures, appraisal requirements, pre-leasing requirements (as applicable), pro forma analysis requirements and interest rate sensitivity. The Bancorp requires a valuation of real estate collateral, which may include third-party appraisals, be performed at the time of origination and renewal in accordance with regulatory requirements and on an as-needed basis when market conditions justify. The Bancorp maintains an appraisal review department to order and review third-party appraisals in accordance with regulatory requirements.

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Nonaccrual assets with relationships exceeding $1 million are reviewed quarterly to assess the appropriateness of the value ascribed in the assessment of charge-offs and specific reserves. Additionally, collateral values are also reviewed at least annually for all criticized assets.

The Bancorp assesses all real estate and non-real estate collateral securing a loan and considers all cross-collateralized loans in the calculation of the LTV ratio. The following tables provide detail on the most recent LTV ratios for commercial mortgage loans greater than $1 million, excluding commercial mortgage loans that are individually evaluated for an ACL. The Bancorp does not typically aggregate the LTV ratios for commercial mortgage loans less than $1 million.

The Bancorp views nonowner-occupied commercial real estate as a higher credit risk product compared to some other commercial loan portfolios due to the higher volatility of the industry.

The following tables provide an analysis of nonowner-occupied commercial real estate loans by state (excluding loans held for sale):

(a)Included in commercial mortgage loans and commercial construction loans in the Loans and Leases subsection of the Balance Sheet Analysis section of MD&A.

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(a)Included in commercial mortgage loans and commercial construction loans in the Loans and Leases subsection of the Balance Sheet Analysis section of MD&A.

Consumer Portfolio

The Bancorp’s consumer portfolio is materially comprised of six categories of loans: residential mortgage loans, home equity, indirect secured consumer loans, credit card, solar energy installation loans and other consumer loans. The Bancorp has identified certain credit characteristics within these six categories of loans which it believes represent a higher level of risk compared to the rest of the consumer loan portfolio. The Bancorp does not update LTVs for the consumer portfolio subsequent to origination except as part of the charge-off process for real estate secured loans. The Bancorp actively manages the consumer portfolio through concentration limits, which mitigate credit risk through limiting the exposure to lower FICO scores, higher LTVs, specific geographic concentration risks and additional risk elements.

The Bancorp continues to ensure that underwriting standards and guidelines adequately account for the broader economic conditions that the consumer portfolio faces in a rising-rate environment. Guidelines are designed to ensure that the various consumer products fall within the Bancorp’s risk appetite. These guidelines are monitored and adjusted as deemed appropriate in response to the prevailing economic conditions while remaining within the Bancorp’s risk tolerance limits.

The payment structures for certain variable rate products (such as residential mortgage loans, home equity and credit card) are susceptible to changes in benchmark interest rates. With increases in interest rates, minimum payments on these products also increase, raising the potential for the environment to be disruptive to some borrowers. The Bancorp actively monitors the portion of its consumer portfolio that is susceptible to increases in minimum payments and continues to assess the impact on the overall risk appetite and soundness of the portfolio.

Residential mortgage portfolio

The Bancorp manages credit risk in the residential mortgage portfolio through underwriting guidelines that limit exposure to loan characteristics determined to influence credit risk. Additionally, the portfolio is governed by concentration limits that ensure geographic, product and channel diversification. The Bancorp may also package and sell loans in the portfolio.

The Bancorp does not originate residential mortgage loans that permit customers to make payments that are less than the accruing interest. The Bancorp originates both fixed-rate and ARM loans. Within the ARM portfolio, approximately $528 million of ARM loans will have rate resets during the next twelve months. Of these resets, 95% are expected to experience an increase in rate, with an average increase of approximately 1.66%. Underlying characteristics of these borrowers are relatively strong with a weighted average origination debt-to-income ratio of 35% and weighted average origination LTV of 72%.

Certain residential mortgage products have characteristics that may increase the Bancorp’s credit loss rates in the event of a decline in housing values. These types of mortgage products offered by the Bancorp include loans with high LTVs, multiple loans secured by the same collateral that when combined result in an LTV greater than 80% and interest-only loans. The Bancorp has deemed residential mortgage loans with greater than 80% LTVs and no mortgage insurance as loans that represent a higher level of risk.

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The following table provides an analysis of the residential mortgage portfolio loans outstanding by LTV at origination as of:

(a)Includes loans with either borrower or lender paid mortgage insurance.

The following tables provide an analysis of the residential mortgage portfolio loans outstanding by state with a greater than 80% LTV at origination and no mortgage insurance:

Home equity portfolio

The Bancorp’s home equity portfolio is primarily comprised of home equity lines of credit. Beginning in the first quarter of 2013, the Bancorp’s newly originated home equity lines of credit have a 10-year interest-only draw period followed by a 20-year amortization period. The home equity line of credit previously offered by the Bancorp was a revolving facility with a 20-year term, minimum payments of interest-only and a balloon payment of principal at maturity. Approximately 27% of the outstanding balances of the Bancorp’s portfolio of home equity lines of credit have a balloon structure at maturity. Peak maturity years for the balloon home equity lines of credit are 2025 to 2028 and approximately 6% of the balances mature before 2025.

The ACL provides coverage for expected losses in the home equity portfolio. The allowance attributable to the portion of the home equity portfolio that is collectively evaluated is determined on a pooled basis using a probability of default, loss given default and exposure at default model framework to generate expected losses. The expected losses for the home equity portfolio are dependent upon loan

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delinquency, FICO scores, LTV, loan age and their historical correlation with macroeconomic variables including unemployment and the home price index. The expected losses generated from models are adjusted by certain qualitative adjustment factors to reflect risks associated with current conditions and trends. The qualitative factors include adjustments for changes in policies or procedures in underwriting, monitoring or collections, economic conditions, portfolio mix, lending and risk management personnel, results of internal audit and quality control reviews, collateral values and geographic concentrations.

The home equity portfolio is managed in two primary groups: loans outstanding with a combined LTV greater than 80% and those loans with an LTV of 80% or less based upon appraisals at origination. For additional information on these loans, refer to Table 36 and Table 37. Of the total $3.9 billion of outstanding home equity loans:

•75% reside within the Bancorp’s Midwest footprint of Ohio, Michigan, Illinois, Indiana and Kentucky as of March 31, 2024;

•34% are in senior lien positions and 66% are in junior lien positions at March 31, 2024;

•75% of non-delinquent borrowers made at least one payment greater than the minimum payment during the three months ended March 31, 2024; and

•The portfolio had a weighted average refreshed FICO score of 749 at March 31, 2024.

The Bancorp actively manages lines of credit and makes adjustments in lending limits when it believes it is necessary based on FICO score deterioration and property devaluation. The Bancorp does not routinely obtain appraisals on performing loans to update LTVs after origination. However, the Bancorp monitors the local housing markets by reviewing various home price indices and incorporates the impact of the changing market conditions in its ongoing credit monitoring processes. For junior lien home equity loans which become 60 days or more past due, the Bancorp tracks the performance of the senior lien loans in which the Bancorp is the servicer and utilizes consumer credit bureau attributes to monitor the status of the senior lien loans that the Bancorp does not service. If the senior lien loan is found to be 120 days or more past due, the junior lien home equity loan is placed on nonaccrual status unless both loans are well-secured and in the process of collection. Additionally, if the junior lien home equity loan becomes 120 days or more past due and the senior lien loan is also 120 days or more past due, the junior lien home equity loan is assessed for charge-off. Refer to the Analysis of Nonperforming Assets subsection of the Risk Management section of MD&A and Note 1 of the Notes to Consolidated Financial Statements included in the Bancorp’s Annual Report on Form 10-K for the year ended December 31, 2023 for more information.

The following table provides an analysis of home equity portfolio loans outstanding disaggregated based upon refreshed FICO score as of:

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The Bancorp believes that home equity portfolio loans with a greater than 80% LTV (including senior liens, if applicable) present a higher level of risk. The following table provides an analysis of the home equity portfolio loans outstanding in a senior and junior lien position by LTV at origination as of:

The following tables provide an analysis of home equity portfolio loans outstanding by state with a LTV greater than 80% (including senior liens, if applicable) at origination:

Indirect secured consumer portfolio

The indirect secured consumer portfolio is comprised of $12.2 billion of automobile loans and $3.1 billion of indirect motorcycle, powersport, recreational vehicle and marine loans as of March 31, 2024. All concentration and guideline changes are monitored monthly to ensure alignment with original credit performance and return projections.

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The following table provides an analysis of indirect secured consumer portfolio loans outstanding disaggregated based upon FICO score at origination as of:

It is a common industry practice to advance on these types of loans an amount in excess of the collateral value due to the inclusion of negative equity trade-in, maintenance/warranty products, taxes, title and other fees paid at closing. The Bancorp monitors its exposure to these higher risk loans.

The following table provides an analysis of indirect secured consumer portfolio loans outstanding by LTV at origination as of:

The following table provides an analysis of the Bancorp’s indirect secured consumer portfolio loans outstanding with an LTV greater than 100% at origination:

Credit card portfolio

The credit card portfolio consists of predominantly prime accounts with 98% of balances existing within the Bancorp’s footprint at both March 31, 2024 and December 31, 2023. At both March 31, 2024 and December 31, 2023, 71% of the outstanding balances were originated through branch-based relationships with the remainder coming from direct mail campaigns and online acquisitions.

Given the variable nature of the credit card portfolio, interest rate increases impact this product and it is regularly monitored to ensure the portfolio remains within the Bancorp’s risk tolerance.

The following table provides an analysis of the Bancorp’s outstanding credit card portfolio disaggregated based upon FICO score at origination as of:

Solar energy installation loans

The Bancorp originates point-of-sale solar energy installation loans through a network of approved installers. The Bancorp considers several factors when monitoring its solar energy installation loan portfolio, including concentrations by installer, concentrations by state and FICO distributions at origination. At March 31, 2024 and December 31, 2023, loans originated through the Bancorp’s three largest approved installers represented approximately 24% and 23%, respectively, of total balances outstanding in the solar energy installation loan portfolio.

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The following tables provide an analysis of solar energy installation portfolio loans outstanding by state:

The following table provides an analysis of solar energy installation portfolio loans outstanding disaggregated based upon FICO score at origination as of:

Other consumer portfolio loans

Other consumer portfolio loans are comprised of secured and unsecured loans originated through the Bancorp’s branch network, point-of-sale home improvement loans originated through a network of contractors and installers, and other point-of-sale loans originated or purchased in connection with third-party companies. Loans originated in connection with one third-party point-of-sale company are impacted by certain credit loss protection coverage provided by that company. The Bancorp discontinued origination of new loans with this third-party company in September 2022.

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The following table provides an analysis of other consumer portfolio loans outstanding by product type as of:

Analysis of Nonperforming Assets

Nonperforming assets include nonaccrual loans and leases for which ultimate collectability of the full amount of the principal and/or interest is uncertain and certain other assets, including OREO and other repossessed property. A summary of nonperforming assets is included in Table 47. For further information on the Bancorp’s policies related to accounting for delinquent and nonperforming loans and leases, refer to the Nonaccrual Loans and Leases section of Note 1 of the Notes to Consolidated Financial Statements included in the Bancorp’s Annual Report on Form 10-K for the year ended December 31, 2023.

Nonperforming assets were $748 million at March 31, 2024 compared to $689 million at December 31, 2023. At March 31, 2024, $5 million of nonaccrual loans were held for sale, compared to $1 million at December 31, 2023.

Nonperforming portfolio assets as a percent of portfolio loans and leases and OREO were 0.64% and 0.59% at March 31, 2024 and December 31, 2023, respectively. Nonaccrual loans and leases secured by real estate were 34% of nonaccrual loans and leases as of March 31, 2024 compared to 32% as of December 31, 2023.

Portfolio commercial nonaccrual loans and leases were $372 million at March 31, 2024, an increase of $46 million from December 31, 2023. Portfolio residential mortgage and consumer nonaccrual loans were $336 million at March 31, 2024, an increase of $13 million from December 31, 2023. Refer to Table 48 for a rollforward of portfolio nonaccrual loans and leases.

OREO and other repossessed property was $35 million and $39 million at March 31, 2024 and December 31, 2023, respectively. The Bancorp recognized an immaterial amount in losses on the transfer, sale or write-down of OREO properties for both the three months ended March 31, 2024 and 2023.

For the three months ended March 31, 2024 and 2023, approximately $17 million and $10 million, respectively, of interest income would have been recognized if the nonaccrual portfolio loans and leases had been current in accordance with their contractual terms. Although these values help demonstrate the costs of carrying nonaccrual credits, the Bancorp does not expect to recover the full amount of interest as nonaccrual loans and leases are generally carried below their principal balance.

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(a)Includes $20 and $19 of nonaccrual government-insured commercial loans whose repayments are insured by the SBA as of March 31, 2024 and December 31, 2023, respectively.

(b)Information for all periods presented excludes advances made pursuant to servicing agreements for GNMA mortgage pools whose repayments are insured by the FHA or guaranteed by the VA. These advances were $127 as of March 31, 2024 and $141 as of December 31, 2023. The Bancorp recognized losses of an immaterial amount for both the three months ended March 31, 2024 and 2023 due to claim denials and curtailments associated with these insured or guaranteed loans.

(c)Includes $19 and $20 of branch-related real estate no longer intended to be used for banking purposes as of March 31, 2024 and December 31, 2023, respectively.

The following tables provide a rollforward of portfolio nonaccrual loans and leases, by portfolio segment:

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Analysis of Net Loan Charge-offs

Net charge-offs were 38 bps and 26 bps of average portfolio loans and leases for the three months ended March 31, 2024 and 2023, respectively. Table 50 provides a summary of credit loss experience and net charge-offs as a percentage of average portfolio loans and leases outstanding by loan category.

The ratio of commercial loan and lease net charge-offs as a percent of average portfolio commercial loans and leases increased to 19 bps during the three months ended March 31, 2024, compared to 17 bps during the same period in the prior year primarily due to an increase in net charge-offs on commercial and industrial loans of $5 million for the three months ended March 31, 2024.

The ratio of consumer loan net charge-offs as a percent of average portfolio consumer loans increased to 67 bps during the three months ended March 31, 2024, compared to 42 bps during the same period in the prior year primarily due to increases in net charge-offs on indirect secured consumer loans of $10 million and solar energy installation loans of $9 million for the three months ended March 31, 2024.

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(a)For the three months ended March 31, 2024 and 2023, the Bancorp recorded $8 and $9, respectively, in both losses charged-off and recoveries of losses previously charged-off related to customer defaults on point-of-sale consumer loans for which the Bancorp obtained recoveries under third-party credit enhancements.

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Allowance for Credit Losses

The allowance for credit losses is comprised of the ALLL and the reserve for unfunded commitments. As described in Note 1 of the Notes to Consolidated Financial Statements included in the Bancorp’s Annual Report on Form 10-K for the year ended December 31, 2023, the Bancorp maintains the ALLL to absorb the amount of credit losses that are expected to be incurred over the remaining contractual terms of the related loans and leases (as adjusted for prepayments). The Bancorp’s methodology for determining the ALLL includes an estimate of expected credit losses on a collective basis for groups of loans and leases with similar risk characteristics and specific allowances for loans and leases which are individually evaluated. For collectively evaluated loans and leases, the Bancorp uses quantitative models to forecast expected credit losses based on the probability of a loan or lease defaulting, the expected balance at the estimated date of default and the expected loss percentage given a default. The Bancorp’s expected credit loss models consider historical credit loss experience, current market and economic conditions, and forecasted changes in market and economic conditions if such forecasts are considered reasonable and supportable.

The Bancorp also considers qualitative factors in determining the ALLL. Qualitative adjustments are used to capture characteristics in the portfolio that impact expected credit losses which are not fully captured within the Bancorp’s expected credit loss models. These factors include adjustments for changes in policies or procedures in underwriting, monitoring or collections, lending and risk management personnel and results of internal audit and quality control reviews. In addition, the qualitative adjustment framework can be utilized to address specific idiosyncratic risks such as geopolitical events, natural disasters or changes in current economic conditions that are not reflected in the quantitative credit loss models, and their effects on regional borrowers and changes in product structures. Qualitative factors may also be used to address the impacts of unforeseen events on key inputs and assumptions within the Bancorp’s expected credit loss models, such as the reasonable and supportable forecast period, changes to historical loss information or changes to the reversion period or methodology.

In addition to the ALLL, the Bancorp maintains a reserve for unfunded commitments recorded in other liabilities in the Condensed Consolidated Balance Sheets. The methodology used to determine the adequacy of this reserve is similar to the Bancorp’s methodology for determining the ALLL. The provision for unfunded commitments is included in the provision for credit losses in the Condensed Consolidated Statements of Income.

For the commercial portfolio segment, the estimates for probability of default are primarily based on internal ratings assigned to each commercial borrower on a 13-point scale and historical observations of how those ratings migrate to a default over time in the context of macroeconomic conditions. For loans with available credit, the estimate of the expected balance at the time of default considers expected utilization rates, which are primarily based on macroeconomic conditions and the utilization history of similar borrowers under those economic conditions. The estimates for loss severity are primarily based on collateral type and coverage levels and the susceptibility of those characteristics to changes in macroeconomic conditions.

For collectively evaluated loans in the consumer and residential mortgage portfolio segments, the Bancorp’s expected credit loss models primarily utilize the borrower’s FICO score and delinquency history in combination with macroeconomic conditions when estimating the probability of default. The estimates for loss severity are primarily based on collateral type and coverage levels and the susceptibility of those characteristics to changes in macroeconomic conditions. The expected balance at the estimated date of default is also especially impactful in the expected credit loss models for portfolio classes which generally have longer terms (such as residential mortgage loans and home equity) and portfolio classes containing a high concentration of loans with revolving privileges (such as home equity). The estimate of the expected balance at the time of default considers expected prepayment and utilization rates where applicable, which are primarily based on macroeconomic conditions and the utilization history of similar borrowers under those economic conditions.

At both March 31, 2024 and December 31, 2023, the Bancorp used three forward-looking economic scenarios during the reasonable and supportable forecast period in its expected credit loss models to address the inherent imprecision in macroeconomic forecasting. Each of the three scenarios was developed by a third party that is subject to the Bancorp’s Third-Party Risk Management program including oversight by the Bancorp’s independent model risk management group. The scenarios included a most likely outcome (Baseline) and two less probable scenarios with one being more favorable than the Baseline and the other being less favorable. The more favorable alternative scenario (Upside) depicted a stronger near-term growth outlook while the less favorable outlook (Downside) depicted a moderate recession.

The Baseline scenario was developed such that the expectation is that the economy will perform better than the projection 50% of the time and worse than the projection 50% of the time. The Upside scenario was developed such that there is a 10% probability that the economy will perform better than the projection and a 90% probability that it will perform worse. The Downside scenario was developed such that there is a 90% probability that the economy will perform better than the projection and a 10% probability that it will perform worse.

March 31, 2024 ACL

The ACL as of March 31, 2024 was impacted by several factors when compared to December 31, 2023, including a more favorable macroeconomic forecast and lower period-end loan and lease balances, partially offset by increases to specific reserves on individually evaluated commercial loans. As of March 31, 2024, the Bancorp’s macroeconomic scenarios included estimates of the expected impacts of the changes in economic conditions caused by expected interest rate cuts and geopolitical risks. At March 31, 2024, the Bancorp assigned an 80% probability weighting to the Baseline scenario and 10% to each of the Upside and Downside scenarios.

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The Baseline scenario assumed average annual real GDP growth of 2.5% for 2024 with the forecast decreasing to 1.5% in 2025 and then increasing to 1.9% in 2026. The Baseline scenario also assumed an average unemployment rate of 3.9% for 2024, increasing to an average of 4.1% in 2025 and slightly decreasing to an average of 4.0% in 2026. Lastly, the Baseline scenario assumed cuts to the target federal funds rate starting in the third quarter of 2024, with an average federal funds rate of 5.2% in 2024 that decreases to an average of 4.3% and 3.3% in 2025 and 2026, respectively. The Upside scenario assumed that, on an average annual basis, the change in real GDP is 3.3% in 2024, slightly decreasing to an average of 3.0% in 2025 and further decreasing to an average of 2.3% in 2026. The Upside scenario also assumed an average unemployment rate of 3.4%, 3.2% and 3.4% in 2024, 2025 and 2026, respectively. In the Upside scenario, the forecast for federal funds rate cuts was generally consistent with the Baseline scenario. The Downside scenario included significant worsening of economic conditions, causing the U.S. economy to fall into a recession in the second quarter of 2024. The Downside scenario assumed that average annual real GDP growth declines to (3.2%) in the second quarter of 2024, modestly recovering to an average of (0.6%) in 2025 and further recovering to an average of 2.4% in 2026. The Downside scenario assumed an average unemployment rate of 5.8% in 2024, increasing to an average of 7.5% in 2025 and decreasing to an average of 6.4% in 2026. In the Downside scenario, the forecast for the federal funds rate included fewer rate cuts than the Baseline scenario, with an average target rate of 4.7% in 2024, followed by a series of steeper rate cuts to an average of 2.1% and 1.0% in 2025 and 2026, respectively.

The Bancorp’s quantitative credit loss models are sensitive to changes in economic forecast assumptions over the reasonable and supportable forecast period. Applying a 100% probability weighting to the Downside scenario rather than using the probability-weighted three scenario approach would result in an increase in the quantitative ACL of approximately $2.1 billion. This sensitivity calculation only reflects the impact of changing the probability weighting of the scenarios in the quantitative credit loss models and excludes any additional considerations associated with the qualitative component of the ACL that might be warranted if probability weights were adjusted.

The following table provides a rollforward of the Bancorp’s ACL:

(a)For the three months ended March 31, 2024 and 2023, the Bancorp recorded $8 and $9, respectively, in both losses charged-off and recoveries of losses previously charged-off related to customer defaults on point-of-sale consumer loans for which the Bancorp obtained recoveries under third-party credit enhancements.

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The following table provides an attribution of the Bancorp’s ALLL to portfolio loans and leases:

(a)Includes residential mortgage loans measured at fair value of $113 at March 31, 2024 and $116 at December 31, 2023.

The Bancorp’s ALLL may vary significantly from period to period based on changes in economic conditions, economic forecasts and the composition and credit quality of the Bancorp’s loan and lease portfolio. For additional information on the Bancorp’s methodology for measuring the ACL, refer to Note 1 of the Notes to Consolidated Financial Statements included in the Bancorp’s Annual Report on Form 10-K for the year ended December 31, 2023.