CINCINNATI FINANCIAL CORP
For the period ended Dec 31, 2025. Filed Feb 23, 2026.
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FY2025 · Filed Feb 23, 2026
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Critical Accounting Estimates
Cincinnati Financial Corporation’s financial statements are prepared using U.S. GAAP. These principles require management to make estimates and assumptions that affect the amounts reported in the Consolidated Financial Statements and accompanying Notes. Actual results could differ materially from those estimates.
The significant accounting policies used in the preparation of the financial statements are discussed in Item 8, Note 1 of the Consolidated Financial Statements. In conjunction with that discussion, material implications of uncertainties associated with the methods, assumptions and estimates underlying the company’s critical accounting policies are discussed below. The audit committee of the board of directors reviews the annual financial statements with management and the independent registered public accounting firm. These discussions cover: the quality of earnings; review of reserves and accruals; reconsideration of the suitability of accounting principles; review of highly
Cincinnati Financial Corporation - 2025 10-K - Page 49 judgmental areas including critical accounting estimates; audit adjustments; and such other inquiries as may be appropriate.
Property Casualty Insurance Loss and Loss Expense Reserves
We establish loss and loss expense reserves for our property casualty insurance business as balance sheet liabilities. Unpaid loss and loss expenses are the estimated amounts necessary to pay for and settle all outstanding insured claims, including incurred but not reported (IBNR) claims. These reserves account for unpaid loss and loss expenses as of a financial statement date.
For some lines of business that we write, a considerable and uncertain amount of time can elapse between the occurrence, reporting and payment of insured claims. The amount we will actually have to pay for such claims also can be highly uncertain. This uncertainty, together with the size of our reserves, makes the loss and loss expense reserves our most significant estimate. Gross loss and loss expense reserves were $11.450 billion at year-end 2025 compared with $9.937 billion at year-end 2024.
How Reserves Are Established
Our field claims representatives establish case reserves when claims are reported to the company to provide for our unpaid loss and loss expense obligation associated with known claims. Field claims managers supervise and review all claims with case reserves less than $100,000. Additionally, a headquarters supervisor and regional claims manager review claims under $100,000 if litigation or a certain specialty claim is involved. All claims with case reserves of $100,000 or greater are reviewed and approved by experienced headquarters supervisors and regional claims managers. Upper-level headquarters claims managers also review case reserves of $175,000 or more.
Our claims representatives base their case reserve estimates primarily upon case-by-case evaluations that consider:
type of claim involved
circumstances surrounding each claim
policy provisions pertaining to each claim
potential for subrogation or salvage recoverable
general insurance reserving practices
Case reserves of all sizes are generally reviewed on a 90-day cycle, or more frequently if new information about a loss becomes available. As part of the review process, we monitor industry trends, cost trends, relevant court cases, legislative activity and other current events in an effort to ascertain new or additional loss exposures.
We also establish IBNR reserves to provide for all unpaid loss and loss expenses not accounted for by case reserves:
For events designated as natural catastrophes resulting in losses incurred related to premiums written on a direct basis by The Cincinnati Insurance Companies, we calculate IBNR reserves directly as a result of an estimated IBNR claim count and an estimated average claim amount for each event. Once case reserves are established for a catastrophe event, we reduce the IBNR reserves. Our claims department management coordinates the assessment of these events and prepares the related IBNR reserve estimates. Such an assessment involves a comprehensive analysis of the nature of the event, of policyholder exposures within the affected geographic area and of available claims intelligence. Depending on the nature of the event, available claims intelligence could include surveys of field claims representatives within the affected geographic area, feedback from a catastrophe claims team sent into the area, as well as data on claims reported as of the financial statement date.
To determine whether an event is designated as a catastrophe, related to premiums written on a direct basis by The Cincinnati Insurance Companies, we generally use the catastrophe definition provided by Property Claims Service (PCS), a division of Insurance Services Office. PCS defines a catastrophe as an event that causes U.S., Puerto Rico and U.S. Virgin Islands damage of $25 million or more in insured property losses and affects a significant number of policyholders and insureds.
For events designated as natural catastrophes resulting in losses for Cincinnati Re and Cincinnati Global, we begin with a review of in-force policies, treaties and related limits likely to be affected by each event. For both Cincinnati Re and Cincinnati Global, use of information from third-party catastrophe models, industry estimates,
Cincinnati Financial Corporation - 2025 10-K - Page 50 and our own proprietary adjustments are used for the estimate of ultimate losses for each catastrophe event. Incurred losses from catastrophe events for both Cincinnati Re and Cincinnati Global can be designated catastrophes by PCS, or deemed as a catastrophe by the international insurance industry or, for Cincinnati Re, as reported by ceding companies. IBNR reserves are calculated as the difference between the estimate of the ultimate loss and loss expenses and the sum of total loss and loss expense payments and total case reserves.
For asbestos and environmental claims, we calculate IBNR reserves by deriving an actuarially-based estimate of total unpaid loss and loss expenses. We then reduce the estimate by total case reserves. We discuss the reserve analysis that applies to asbestos and environmental reserves in Liquidity and Capital Resources, Asbestos and Environmental Loss and Loss Expense Reserves.
For loss expenses that pertain primarily to salaries and other costs related to our claims associates, also referred to as adjusting and other expense or AOE, we calculate reserves based on an analysis of the relationship between paid losses and paid AOE. Reserves for AOE are allocated to company, line of business and accident year based on a claim count algorithm. Claim counts reported and used in the reserving process are primarily measured by insurance coverages that are triggered when a loss occurs and a reserve is established. Coverages are defined as unique combinations of certain attributes such as line of business and cause of loss. Claims that are opened and closed without payment are included in the reported claim counts. Claim counts are presented on a direct basis only and do not reflect any assumed or ceded reinsurance.
For all other claims and events, including reinsurance assumed or ceded, IBNR reserves are calculated as the difference between an actuarial estimate of the ultimate cost of total loss and loss expenses incurred reduced by the sum of total loss and loss expense payments and total case reserves estimated for individual claims. Reserve amounts for those other claims and events are significant, and represent the majority of amounts shown as IBNR reserves and loss expense reserves in the table included in Liquidity and Capital Resources, Property Casualty Loss and Loss Expense Obligations and Reserves. We discuss below the development of actuarially based estimates of the ultimate cost of total loss and loss expenses incurred.
Our actuarial staff applies significant judgment in selecting models and estimating model parameters when preparing reserve analyses. Unpaid loss and loss expenses are inherently uncertain as to timing and amount. Uncertainties relating to model appropriateness, parameter estimates and actual loss and loss expense amounts are referred to as model, parameter and process uncertainty, respectively. Our management and actuarial staff address these uncertainties in the reserving process in a variety of ways.
Our actuarial staff bases its IBNR reserve estimates for these losses primarily on the indications of methods and models that analyze accident year data. Accident year is the year in which an insured claim, loss or loss expense occurred. The specific methods and models that our actuaries have used for the past several years are:
paid and reported loss development methods
paid and reported loss Bornhuetter-Ferguson methods
stochastic reserving models
Our actuarial staff uses diagnostics to evaluate the appropriateness of the models and methods listed above. The appropriateness of these models and methods for estimating IBNR reserves tends to depend on the tail for a line of business. Tail refers to the time interval between a typical claim’s occurrence and its settlement. The loss development and Bornhuetter-Ferguson methods, particularly the reported loss variations, tend to produce more appropriate IBNR reserve estimates for our short-tail lines such as homeowner and commercial property. For our mid-tail and long-tail lines, all models and methods provide useful insights.
Our actuarial staff also devotes significant time and effort to the estimation of model and method parameters. The loss development and Bornhuetter-Ferguson methods require the estimation of numerous loss development factors. The Bornhuetter-Ferguson methods also involve the estimation of numerous expected loss ratios by accident year. Stochastic reserving models can involve the estimation of development trends, calendar year inflation trends and exposure levels. Consequently, our actuarial staff monitors a number of trends and measures to gain key business insights necessary for exercising appropriate judgment when estimating the parameters mentioned, such as:
company and industry pricing
company and industry exposure
company and industry loss frequency and severity
Cincinnati Financial Corporation - 2025 10-K - Page 51
past large loss events
company and industry premium
company in-force policy count
These trends and measures also support the estimation of expected accident year loss ratios needed for applying the Bornhuetter-Ferguson methods and for assessing the reasonability of all IBNR reserve estimates computed. Our actuarial staff reviews these trends and measures quarterly, updating parameters derived from them as necessary.
Quarterly, our actuarial staff summarizes their reserve analysis by preparing an actuarial best estimate and a range of reasonable IBNR reserves intended to reflect the uncertainty of the estimate. An inter-departmental committee that includes our actuarial management team reviews the results of each quarterly reserve analysis. The committee establishes management’s best estimate of IBNR reserves, which is the amount that is included in each period’s financial statements. In addition to the information provided by actuarial staff, the committee also considers factors such as:
large loss activity and trends in large losses
new business activity
judicial decisions
general economic trends such as inflation
trends in litigiousness and legal expenses
product and underwriting changes
changes in claims practices
The determination of management’s best estimate, like the preparation of the reserve analysis that supports it, involves considerable judgment. Changes in reserving data or the trends and factors that influence reserving data may signal fundamental shifts or may simply reflect single-period anomalies. Even if a change reflects a fundamental shift, the full extent of the change may not become evident until years later. Moreover, since our methods and models do not explicitly relate many of the factors we consider directly to reserve levels, we typically cannot quantify the precise impact of such factors on the adequacy of reserves prospectively or retrospectively.
Due to the uncertainties described above, our ultimate loss experience could prove better or worse than our carried reserves reflect. To the extent that reserves are inadequate and increased, the amount of the increase is a charge in the period that the deficiency is recognized, raising our loss and loss expense ratio and reducing earnings. To the extent that reserves are redundant and released, the amount of the release is a credit in the period that the redundancy is recognized, reducing our loss and loss expense ratio and increasing earnings.
Key Assumptions – Loss Reserving
Our actuarial staff makes a number of key assumptions when using their methods and models to derive IBNR reserve estimates. Appropriate reliance on these key assumptions essentially entails determinations of the likelihood that statistically significant patterns in historical data may extend into the future. The four most significant of the key assumptions used by our actuarial staff and approved by management are:
Emergence of loss and defense and cost containment expenses, also referred to as DCCE, on an accident year basis. Historical paid loss, reported loss and paid DCCE data for the business lines we analyze contain patterns that reflect how unpaid losses, unreported losses and unpaid DCCE as of a financial statement date will emerge in the future. Unless our actuarial staff or management identifies reasons or factors that invalidate the extension of historical patterns into the future, these patterns can be used to make projections necessary for estimating IBNR reserves. Our actuaries significantly rely on this assumption in the application of all methods and models mentioned above.
Calendar year inflation. For long-tail and mid-tail business lines, calendar year inflation trends for future paid losses and paid DCCE do not vary significantly from a stable, long-term average. Our actuaries base reserve estimates derived from stochastic reserving models on this assumption.
Exposure levels. Historical earned premiums, when adjusted to reflect common levels of product pricing and loss cost inflation, can serve as a proxy for historical exposures. Our actuaries require this assumption to estimate expected loss ratios and expected DCCE ratios used by the Bornhuetter-Ferguson reserving methods. They may
Cincinnati Financial Corporation - 2025 10-K - Page 52 also use this assumption to establish exposure levels for recent accident years, characterized by “green” or immature data, when working with stochastic reserving models.
Claims having atypical emergence patterns. Characteristics of certain subsets of claims, such as high frequency, high severity, or mass tort claims, have the potential to distort patterns contained in historical paid loss, reported loss and paid DCCE data. When testing indicates this to be the case for a particular subset of claims, our actuaries segregate these claims from the data and analyze them separately. Subsets of claims that could fall into this category include hurricane claims or claims for other weather events where total losses we incurred were very large, individual large claims and asbestos and environmental claims.
These key assumptions have not changed for several years. Paid losses, reported losses and paid DCCE are subject to random as well as systematic influences. As a result, actual paid losses, reported losses and paid DCCE are virtually certain to differ from projections. Such differences are consistent with what specific models for our business lines predict and with the related patterns in the historical data used to develop these models. As a result, management does not closely monitor statistically insignificant differences between actual and projected data.
Reserve Estimate Variability
Management believes that the standard error of a reserve estimate, a measure of the estimate’s variability, provides the most appropriate measure of the estimate’s sensitivity. The reserves we establish depend on the models we use and the related parameters we estimate in the course of conducting reserve analyses. However, the actual amount required to settle all outstanding insured claims, including IBNR claims, as of a financial statement date depends on stochastic, or random, elements as well as the systematic elements captured by our models and estimated model parameters. For the lines of business we write, process uncertainty – the inherent variability of loss and loss expense payments – typically contributes more to the imprecision of a reserve estimate than parameter uncertainty.
Consequently, a sensitivity measure that ignores process uncertainty would provide an incomplete picture of the reserve estimate’s sensitivity. Since a reserve estimate’s standard error accounts for both process and parameter uncertainty, it reflects the estimate’s full sensitivity to a range of reasonably likely scenarios.
The table below provides standard errors and reserve ranges by major property casualty lines of business and in total for net loss and loss expense reserves as well as the potential effects on our net income, assuming a 21% federal tax rate. Standard errors and reserve ranges for assorted groupings of these lines of business cannot be computed by simply adding the standard errors and reserve ranges of the component lines of business, since such an approach would ignore the effects of product diversification. See Liquidity and Capital Resources, Property Casualty Loss and Loss Expense Obligations and Reserves, Range of Reasonable Reserves, for more details on our total reserve range. While the table reflects our assessment of the most likely range within which each line’s actual unpaid loss and loss expenses may fall, one or more lines’ actual unpaid loss and loss expenses could nonetheless fall outside of the indicated ranges.
| (Dollars in millions) | Net loss and loss expense range of reserves | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carried reserves | Low point | High point | Standard error | Net incomeeffect | |
| Total | $11,012 | $10,073 | $11,141 | $534 | $422 |
| Commercial casualty | $3,837 | $3,498 | $4,047 | $274 | $217 |
| Commercial property | 495 | 368 | 520 | 76 | 60 |
| Commercial auto | 1,085 | 1,003 | 1,116 | 57 | 45 |
| Workers' compensation | 1,013 | 855 | 1,047 | 96 | 76 |
| Personal auto | 580 | 533 | 620 | 44 | 35 |
| Homeowners | 571 | 484 | 580 | 48 | 38 |
| Excess and surplus | 1,268 | 1,081 | 1,384 | 152 | 120 |
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Life Policy and Investment Contract Reserves
We establish the reserves for traditional life policies, including term, whole life and other products based on certain cash flow assumptions including mortality and lapse rates. These assumptions are established based on our current expectations and are reviewed annually to determine any necessary updates. They are also updated on an interim basis if evidence suggests that they should be revised. We use both our own experience and industry experience, adjusted for historical trends, in arriving at our cash flow assumptions. These reserves also include a discount rate assumption that is based on upper-medium grade fixed-income instrument yields (market value discount rates) and is updated quarterly.
The gross reserve balance for term and whole life policy reserves was $1.529 billion, or 51.1%, of total life policy and investment contract reserves at December 31, 2025. The following table summarizes the sensitivity, on a net basis, of our term and whole life policy reserves and reinsurance recoverable amounts to hypothetical changes in key assumptions and the resulting increase/(decrease) to pretax net income and pretax other comprehensive income:
| (Dollars in millions) | At December 31, 2025 | |
|---|---|---|
| Pretax Net Income | Pretax Other Comprehensive Income | |
| Assumptions set by actuaries and approved by management: | ||
| Mortality | ||
| Effect of a 1% increase | $(7) | $— |
| Effect of a 1% decrease | 7 | — |
| Lapse rates | ||
| Effect of a 10% increase | $21 | $(4) |
| Effect of a 10% decrease | (20) | 3 |
| Assumptions set by market values: | ||
| Market value discount rate | ||
| Effect of a 100 basis point increase | $— | $160 |
| Effect of a 100 basis point decrease | — | (198) |
We establish reserves for our universal life, deferred annuity and other investment contracts, equal to the cumulative account balances, which include premium deposits plus credited interest less charges and withdrawals. Charges include surrender and contract administration charges as well as asset-based fees. The reserve balance for these contracts was $1.225 billion, or 40.9%, of total life policy and investment contract reserves, at December 31, 2025.
Some of our universal life insurance policies contain no-lapse guarantee provisions. For these policies, we establish a reserve, or other additional liability, in addition to the account balance based on expected no-lapse guarantee benefits and expected policy assessments. Key assumptions used to establish this other additional liability reserve are expected investment returns and projected lapse rates. These assumptions, and other relevant inputs, are reviewed annually and on an interim basis in line with the process described above for traditional life policies. The reserve balance was $138 million, or 4.6%, of total life policy and investment contract reserves at December 31, 2025, and is included as a component of universal life reserves in Item 8, Note 5 of the Consolidated Financial Statements.
Asset Impairment
Our investment portfolio is our largest asset. We monitor the fixed-maturity portfolio and all other assets for signs of credit-related or other impairment. We monitor decreases in the fair value of invested assets and the need for an allowance for credit losses for our fixed-maturity portfolio; allowances for expected credit losses on receivable and recoverable assets considering past events, current conditions and reasonable and supportable forecasts; an accumulation of company costs in excess of the amount originally expected to acquire or construct an asset; or other factors such as bankruptcy, deterioration of creditworthiness or failure to pay interest; and changes in legal factors or in the business climate.
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The application of our invested assets impairment policy resulted in no write-downs of impaired securities intended to be sold in 2025 or 2024. Write-downs of impaired securities intended to be sold reduced our income before income taxes by $4 million in 2023. Write-downs represent noncash charges to income and are reported as investment losses. The application of our noninvested assets impairment policy did not have a material effect on our financial condition in 2025 or 2024.
Our internal investment portfolio managers monitor their assigned portfolios. If a fixed-maturity security is valued below amortized cost, the portfolio managers undertake additional reviews. Such declines often occur in conjunction with events taking place in the overall economy and market, combined with events specific to the industry or operations of the issuing organization. Managers review quantitative measurements such as a declining trend in fair value and the extent of the fair value decline, as well as qualitative measures such as pending events, credit ratings and issuer liquidity. We are even more proactive when these declines in valuation are greater than might be anticipated when viewed in the context of overall economic and market conditions. We provide detailed information about fixed-maturity securities fair valued in a continuous loss position at year-end 2025 in Item 7A, Quantitative and Qualitative Disclosures About Market Risk.
An available for sale fixed-maturity security is impaired if the fair value of the security is below amortized cost. The impaired loss is charged to net income when we have the intent to sell the security or it is more likely than not we will be required to sell the security before recovery of the amortized cost. For impaired securities we intend to hold, an allowance for credit related losses is recorded in investment losses when the company determines a credit loss has been incurred based on certain factors such as adverse conditions, credit rating downgrades or failure of the issuer to make scheduled principal or interest payments. A credit loss is determined using a discounted cash flow analysis by comparing the present value of expected cash flows with the amortized cost basis, limited to the difference between fair value and amortized cost. Noncredit losses are recognized in other comprehensive income as a change in unrealized gains and losses on investments. We provide information about valuations of our invested assets in Item 8, Note 2 of the Consolidated Financial Statements.
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Fair Value Measurements
Valuation of Financial Instruments
Fair value is defined as the exit price or the amount that would be (1) received to sell an asset or (2) paid to transfer a liability in an orderly transaction between marketplace participants at the measurement date. When determining an exit price, we must, whenever possible, rely upon observable market data.
We have categorized our financial instruments, based on the priority of the inputs to the valuation technique, into a three-level fair value hierarchy. The fair value hierarchy gives the highest priority to quoted prices in active markets for identical assets or liabilities (Level 1) and the lowest priority to unobservable inputs (Level 3). If the inputs used to measure the financial instruments fall within different levels of the hierarchy, the categorization is based on the lowest level that is significant to the fair value measurement of the instrument. While we consider pricing data from outside services, we ultimately determine whether the data or inputs used by these outside services are observable or unobservable.
Financial assets and liabilities recorded in the Consolidated Balance Sheets are categorized based on the inputs to the valuation techniques as described in Item 8, Note 3 of the Consolidated Financial Statements.
Level 1 and Level 2 Valuation Techniques
Substantially all of the $30.965 billion of securities in our investment portfolio at year-end 2025, measured at fair value, are classified as Level 1 or Level 2. Financial assets that fall within Level 1 and Level 2 are priced according to observable data from identical or similar securities that have traded in the marketplace. Also within Level 2 are securities that are valued by outside services or brokers where we have evaluated and verified the pricing methodology and determined that the inputs are observable.
The text of this filing, as the company filed it with the SEC, without its images or exhibits. This is not investment advice.