AMERICAN INTERNATIONAL GROUP, INC.
For the period ended Dec 31, 2025. Filed Feb 12, 2026.
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FY2025 · Filed Feb 12, 2026
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Critical Accounting Estimates
The preparation of financial statements in accordance with GAAP requires the application of accounting policies that often involve a significant degree of judgment.
The accounting policies that we believe are most dependent on the application of estimates and assumptions, which are critical accounting estimates, are related to the determination of:
loss reserves;•reinsurance assets;•fair value measurements of certain financial assets and financial liabilities; and•income taxes, in particular the recoverability of our deferred tax asset and establishment of provisions for uncertain tax positions.
These accounting estimates require the use of assumptions about matters, some of which are highly uncertain at the time of estimation. To the extent actual experience differs from the assumptions used, our consolidated financial condition, results of operations and cash flows could be materially affected.
LOSS RESERVES
Loss reserves represent the accumulation of estimates of unpaid claims, including estimates for claims incurred but not reported and loss adjustment expenses, less applicable discount. We regularly review and update the methods used to determine loss reserve estimates. Because these estimates are subject to the outcome of future events and because loss trends vary and time is often required for changes in trends to be recognized and confirmed, changes in estimates are common.
The estimate of loss reserves relies on several key judgments:
the determination of the actuarial methods used as the basis for these estimates;
the relative weights given to these models by product line;
the underlying assumptions used in these models; and
the determination of the appropriate groupings of similar product lines and, in some cases, the disaggregation of dissimilar losses within a product line.
Numerous assumptions are made in determining the best estimate of reserves for each line of business, in consideration of expected ultimate losses, loss cost trends and loss development factors, where appropriate. The importance of any one assumption can vary by both line of business and accident year. Because such assumptions may differ from actual experience, there could be significant variation in the development of loss reserves. This estimation uncertainty is particularly relevant for long-tail lines of business.
All of our methods to calculate net reserves include assumptions about estimated reinsurance recoveries and their collectability. Reinsurance collectability is evaluated independently of the reserving process and appropriate allowances for uncollectible reinsurance are established.
Overview of Loss Reserving Process and Methods
Our loss reserves can generally be categorized into two distinct groups: short-tail reserves and long-tail reserves. Short-tail reserves consist principally of U.S. Property and Special Risks, UK/Europe Property and Special Risks, U.S. Personal Insurance, and UK/Europe and Japan Personal Insurance. Long-tail reserves include U.S. Workers’ Compensation, U.S. Excess Casualty, U.S. Other Casualty, U.S. Financial Lines, and UK/Europe Casualty and Financial Lines.
Short-Tail Reserves
In short-tail lines of business, where the nature of these claims tends to be higher frequency with short reporting periods, with volatility arising from occasional severe events, the actual losses reported make up a greater proportion of the ultimate loss estimate. During the first few development quarters of an accident year, the expected ultimate losses generally reflect the average loss costs from a period of preceding accident quarters that have been adjusted for changes in rate and loss cost trends, mix of business, known exposure to unreported losses, or other factors affecting the particular line of business. For more mature quarters, specific loss development methods and/or frequency/severity methods may be used to determine the incurred but not reported (IBNR). IBNR for claims arising from catastrophic events or events of unusual severity would be determined taking into account information known by the claims department, using alternative techniques or expected percentages of ultimate loss emergence based on historical emergence of similar events or claim types.
Long-Tail Reserves
Estimation of loss reserves for our long-tail business depends on a number of factors, including the product line and volume of business, as well as estimates of reinsurance recoveries. Experience in more recent accident years generally provides limited statistical credibility of reported net losses. IBNR reserves constitute a relatively higher proportion of the ultimate net loss incurred in more recent accident years because of the lower level of reported net losses earlier in the development period.
For our long-tail lines, we generally make actuarial and other assumptions with respect to the following:
Loss cost trend factors, which are used to establish expected loss ratios for subsequent accident years based on the projected loss ratios for prior accident years.
Expected loss ratios, which are used for the latest accident year and, in some cases, for accident years prior to the latest accident year. The expected loss ratio also generally reflects the average loss ratio from prior accident years, adjusted for the loss cost trend and the effect of rate changes and other quantifiable factors on the loss ratio.
Loss development factors, which are used to project the reported losses for each accident year to an ultimate basis. Generally, the actual loss development factors observed from prior accident years would be used as a basis to determine the loss development factors for the subsequent accident years.
Tail factors, which are development factors used for certain long-tail lines of business to project future loss development for periods that extend beyond the available development data.
Differences between actual loss emergence in a given period and our expectations based on prior loss reserve estimates are used to monitor reserve adequacy between reserve reviews and may also influence our judgment with respect to adjusting reserve estimates.
Details of the Loss Reserving Process
The process of determining the current loss ratio for each product line of business is based on a variety of factors. These include considerations such as: prior accident year and policy year loss ratios; rate changes; and changes in coverage, reinsurance, or mix of business. Other considerations include actual and anticipated changes in external factors such as trends in loss costs, inflation, employment rates or unemployment duration or in the legal and claims environment. The current loss ratio for each product line of business is intended to represent our best estimate after reflecting all relevant factors. At the close of each quarter, the assumptions and data underlying the loss ratios are reviewed to determine whether they remain appropriate. This process includes a review of the actual loss experience in the quarter, actual rate changes achieved, actual changes in reinsurance, quantifiable changes in coverage or mix of business, and changes in other factors that may affect the loss ratio.
We conduct a comprehensive reserve review at least annually for each product line of business in accordance with Actuarial Standards of Practice. Our actuarial central estimate for each product line of business represents an expected value generally considering a range of reasonably possible outcomes.
The reserve analysis, globally, for each product line of business is performed by a credentialed actuarial team in collaboration with claims, underwriting, business unit management, risk management and senior management. Our actuaries aggregate the data into reserve segments, balancing considerations of homogeneity and credibility. They update numerous assumptions, including the analysis and selection of loss development and loss trend factors. They also determine and select the appropriate actuarial or other methods used to develop our best estimate for each business product line, and may employ multiple methods and assumptions for each product line. These data groupings, accident year weights, method selections and assumptions necessarily change over time as business mix changes, development factors mature and become more credible and loss characteristics evolve. We seek input from third-party specialists to help inform our judgments as needed.
A critical component of our reserve reviews is an internal peer review of our reserving analyses and conclusions, where actuaries independent of the initial review evaluate the reasonableness of assumptions used, methods selected, and weightings given to different methods. In addition, each detailed valuation review is subjected to a review and challenge process by specialists in our Enterprise Risk Management (ERM) group.
For certain product lines, we measure sensitivities and determine explicit ranges around the actuarial best estimate using multiple methodologies and varying assumptions. Where we have ranges, we use them to inform our selection of best estimates of loss reserves by product line of business. Our range of reasonable estimates is not intended to cover all possibilities or extreme values and is based on known data and facts at the time of estimation.
Actuarial and Other Methods for Our Lines of Business
Our actuaries determine the appropriate actuarial methods and segmentation. This determination is based on a variety of factors including the nature of the losses associated with the product line of business, such as the frequency or severity of the claims. In addition to determining the actuarial methods, the actuaries determine the appropriate loss reserve groupings of data. The groupings may change to reflect observed or emerging patterns within and across product lines, or to differentiate risk characteristics (for example, size of deductibles and extent of third-party claims specialists used by our insureds). This determination of data segmentation and related actuarial methods is assessed, reviewed and updated at least annually.
The actuarial methods we use most commonly include paid and incurred loss development methods, expected loss ratio methods, including “Bornhuetter Ferguson” and “Cape Cod,” and frequency/severity models. Loss development methods utilize the actual loss development patterns from prior accident years updated through the current year to project the reported losses to an ultimate basis for all accident years. We also use this information to update our current accident year loss selections. Loss development methods are generally most appropriate for lines of business that exhibit a stable pattern of loss development from one accident year to the next, and for which the components of the product line have similar development characteristics. Expected loss ratio methods rely on the application of an expected loss ratio to the earned premium for the product line of business to determine the liability for loss reserves and loss adjustment expenses. We generally use expected loss ratio methods in cases where the reported loss data lacked sufficient credibility to utilize loss development methods, such as for new product lines of business or for long-tail product lines at early stages of loss development. Frequency/severity models may be used where sufficient frequency counts are available to apply such approaches.
The estimation of liability for loss reserves and loss adjustment expenses relating to asbestos and environmental pollution losses on insurance policies written many years ago is typically subject to greater uncertainty than other types of losses. This is due to inconsistent court decisions, as well as judicial interpretations and legislative actions that in some cases have tended to broaden coverage beyond the original intent of such policies or have expanded theories of liability. In addition, reinsurance recoverable balances relating to asbestos and environmental loss reserves are subject to greater uncertainty due to the underlying age of the claim, underlying legal issues surrounding the nature of the coverage, and determination of proper policy period. For these reasons, these balances tend to be subject to increased levels of disputes and legal collection activity when actually billed.
Key Assumptions of our Actuarial Methods by Line of Business
| Line of Business or Category | Key Assumptions |
|---|---|
| U.S. Workers’Compensation | We generally use a combination of loss development and expected loss ratio methods for U.S. Workers’ Compensation as this is a long-tail line of business. The tail factor is typically the most critical assumption, and small changes in the selected tail factor can have a material effect on our carried reserves. For example, the tail factors beyond twenty years for guaranteed cost business could vary by 1 percentage point below to 2.5 percentage points above those indicated in our reserve estimates. For excess of deductible business, in our judgment, it is reasonably possible that tail factors beyond twenty years could vary by 1.5 percentage points below to 3 percentage points above those indicated in our reserve estimates. |
| U.S. Excess Casualty | The loss cost trend assumption is critical for U.S. Excess Casualty due to the long-tail nature of the losses. We utilize various loss cost trend assumptions for different segments of the portfolio. In our judgment, after evaluating historical loss cost trends, it is reasonably possible that actual loss cost may range 5 percentage points lower or higher than the estimated loss trend utilized in our reserve estimates. These changes in loss trends could be attributable to changes in inflation or in the judicial environment, or in other social or economic conditions affecting losses.Loss development factors are also a key assumption for U.S. Excess Casualty. Due to the long-tail nature of the business, any deviation in loss development factors might not be discernible for an extended period of time subsequent to the recording of the initial loss reserve estimates for any accident year. In our judgment, it is reasonably possible that the actual loss development factors could vary by an amount equivalent to a six month shift from those actually utilized in our reserve estimates. Similar to loss cost trends, these changes in loss development factors could be attributable to changes in inflation or in the judicial environment, or in other social or economic conditions affecting losses.Given the very long-tail nature of this business, the tail factor selection can also have material impact on our carried reserves. The sensitivity around tail selection may also be a proxy for the sensitivity of a calendar year impact of monetary inflation on unpaid losses. It is reasonably possible for the tail factors for Excess Casualty could vary by 2 percentage points below to 3.5 percentage points above those indicated in our reserve estimates. |
| U.S. Other Casualty | The key assumptions for other casualty lines are similar to U.S. Excess Casualty, as the underlying business is long-tailed and can be subject to variability in loss cost trends and changes in loss development factors. These may differ significantly by line of business as coverages such as general liability, medical malpractice and environmental may be subject to different risk drivers. |
| Line of Business or Category | Key Assumptions |
|---|---|
| U.S. Financial Lines | The loss cost trends for U.S. D&O liability business vary by year and subset. In our judgment, after evaluating the historical loss cost levels from prior accident years, it is reasonably possible that the actual variation in loss cost levels for these subsets could vary by approximately 10 percentage points lower or higher on a year-over-year basis than the assumptions actually utilized in our reserve estimates.The selected loss development factors are also an important assumption. Because these lines are written on a claims made basis, the loss reporting and development tail is much shorter than for other lines, however, the high severity nature of the losses does create the potential for significant deviations in loss development patterns from one year to the next. After evaluating the historical loss development factors, in our judgment, it is reasonably possible that actual loss development factors could change by an amount equivalent to a shift by six months from those actually utilized in our reserve estimates. |
| UK/Europe Casualty andFinancial Lines | Similar to U.S. business, UK/Europe Casualty and Financial Lines can be significantly impacted by loss cost trends and changes in loss development factors. The variation in such factors can differ significantly by product and region, however the range of potential impacts is much lower than that of other lines of business noted above. |
| U.S. and UK/EuropeProperty and SpecialRisks | For shorter-tail lines such as Property and Special Risks, variance in outcomes for individual large claims or events typically has a greater impact on results than does changes in actuarial assumptions or methodology. This is because a greater proportion of the ultimate loss, at any stage of development, is composed of reported losses than IBNR reserves. These outcomes generally relate to unique characteristics of events such as catastrophes or losses with significant business interruption claims. |
| U.S., UK/Europe andJapan Personal Insurance | Personal Insurance is short-tailed in nature similar to Property and Special Risks but less volatile. Variance in estimates can result from unique events such as catastrophes. In addition, some subsets of this business, such as auto liability, can be impacted by changes in loss development factors and loss cost trends. |
The following sensitivity analysis table summarizes the effect on the loss reserve position of using certain alternative loss cost trend (for accident years where we use expected loss ratio methods) or loss development factor assumptions rather than the assumptions actually used in determining our estimates in the year-end loss reserve analyses in 2025:
| December 31, 2025 · Increase(Decrease) toLoss Reserves · Increase(Decrease) toLoss Reserves | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| (in millions) | |||||
| Loss cost trends: · Loss development factors: | |||||
| U.S. Excess Casualty: · U.S. Excess Casualty: | |||||
| 5.0 percentage points increase | $900 | 3.5 percentage points tail factor increase | $1,150 | ||
| 5.0 percentage points decrease | (650) | 2.0 percentage points tail factor decrease | (700) | ||
| U.S. Excess Casualty: | |||||
| 6-months slower | 750 | ||||
| 6-months faster | (700) | ||||
| U.S. Financial Lines (D&O) | U.S. Financial Lines (D&O) | ||||
| 10.0 percentage points increase | 750 | 6-months slower | 600 | ||
| 10.0 percentage points decrease | (550) | 6-months faster | (500) | ||
| U.S. Workers' Compensation: | |||||
| Tail factor increase(a) | 900 | ||||
| Tail factor decrease(b) | (600) | ||||
(a)Tail factor increase of 2.5 percentage points for guaranteed cost business and 3 percentage points for deductible business.
(b)Tail factor decrease of 1 percentage point for guaranteed cost business and 1.5 percentage points for deductible business.
For additional information on our reserving process and methodology, see Note 13 to the Consolidated Financial Statements.
REINSURANCE ASSETS
In the ordinary course of business, our insurance companies may use both treaty and facultative reinsurance to minimize their net loss exposure to any single catastrophic loss event or to an accumulation of losses from a number of smaller events or to provide greater diversification of our businesses. Reinsurance assets include the balances due from reinsurance and insurance companies under the terms of our reinsurance agreements for paid and unpaid losses and loss adjustment expenses incurred and ceded unearned premiums. The estimation of reinsurance recoverables involves a significant amount of judgment. Reinsurance assets include reinsurance recoverables on unpaid losses and loss adjustment expenses that are estimated as part of our loss reserving process and, consequently, are subject to similar judgments and uncertainties as the estimation of gross loss reserves. For additional information on reinsurance, see Note 8 to the Consolidated Financial Statements.
FAIR VALUE MEASUREMENTS OF CERTAIN FINANCIAL ASSETS AND FINANCIAL LIABILITIES
Assets and liabilities recorded at fair value in the Consolidated Balance Sheets are measured and classified in a hierarchy for disclosure purposes consisting of three levels based on the observability of inputs available in the marketplace used to measure the fair value. We classify fair value measurements for certain assets and liabilities as Level 3 when they require significant unobservable inputs in their valuation. We consider unobservable inputs to be those for which market data is not available. Our assessment of the significance of a particular input to the fair value measurement of an asset or liability requires judgment.
For additional information about the valuation methodologies of financial instruments measured at fair value, see Note 5 to the Consolidated Financial Statements.
INCOME TAXES
Deferred income taxes represent the tax effect of the differences between the amounts recorded in our Consolidated Financial Statements and the tax basis of assets and liabilities. Our assessment of net deferred income taxes represents management’s best estimate of the tax consequences of various events and transactions, which can themselves be based on other accounting estimates, resulting in incremental uncertainty in the estimation process.
Deferred Tax Asset Recoverability
The evaluation of the recoverability of our deferred tax asset and the need for a valuation allowance requires us to weigh all positive and negative evidence to reach a conclusion that it is more likely than not that all or some portion of the deferred tax asset will not be realized. The weight given to the evidence is commensurate with the extent to which it can be objectively verified. As such, changes in tax laws in countries where we transact business can impact our deferred tax asset valuation allowance. We consider multiple factors to reliably estimate future taxable income so we can determine the extent of our ability to realize net operating losses, foreign tax credits, realized capital loss and other carryforwards. These factors include forecasts of future income for each of our businesses, which incorporate forecasts of future statutory income for our insurance companies, and actual and planned business and operational changes, both of which include assumptions about future macroeconomic and AIG-specific conditions and events. We subject the forecasts to stresses of key assumptions and evaluate the effect on tax attribute utilization. We also apply stresses to our assumptions about the effectiveness of relevant prudent and feasible tax planning strategies. In performing our assessment of recoverability, we consider tax laws governing the utilization of net operating loss, capital loss and foreign tax credit carryforwards in each applicable jurisdiction. These tax laws are subject to change, resulting in incremental uncertainty in our assessment of recoverability.
Uncertain Tax Positions
Uncertain tax positions represent AIG’s liability for income taxes on tax years subject to review by the Internal Revenue Service (IRS) or other tax authorities. We determine whether it is more likely than not that a tax position will be sustained, based on technical merits, upon examination by the relevant taxing authorities before any part of the benefit can be recognized in the financial statements. A tax position is measured at the largest amount of benefit that is greater than 50 percent likely to be realized upon settlement. The completion of review, or the expiration of federal statute of limitations for a given audit period could result in an adjustment to the liability for income taxes.
For a discussion of our framework for assessing the recoverability of our deferred tax asset and other tax topics, see Note 21 to the Consolidated Financial Statements.
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