Cheniere Energy Inc

The preparation of our Consolidated Financial Statements in conformity with GAAP requires management to make certain estimates and assumptions that affect the amounts reported in the Consolidated Financial Statements and the accompanying notes. Management evaluates its estimates and related assumptions regularly, including those related to the valuation of derivative instruments. Changes in facts and circumstances or additional information may result in revised estimates, and actual results may differ from these estimates. Management considers the following to be its most critical accounting estimates that involve significant judgment.

Fair Value of Level 3 Physical Liquefaction Supply Derivatives

All of our derivative instruments are recorded at fair value, as described in Note 2—Summary of Significant Accounting Policies of our Notes to Consolidated Financial Statements. We record changes in the fair value of our derivative positions through earnings, based on the value for which the derivative instrument could be exchanged between willing parties. Valuation of our physical liquefaction supply derivative contracts is often developed through the use of internal models which includes significant unobservable inputs representing Level 3 fair value measurements as further described in Note 2—Summary of Significant Accounting Policies of our Notes to Consolidated Financial Statements. In instances where observable data is unavailable, consideration is given to the assumptions that market participants may use in valuing the asset or liability. To the extent valued using an option pricing model, we consider the future prices of energy units for unobservable periods to be a significant unobservable input to estimated net fair value. In estimating the future prices of energy units, we make judgments about market risk related to liquidity of commodity indices and volatility utilizing available market data. Changes in facts and circumstances or additional information may result in revised estimates and judgments, and actual results may differ from these estimates and judgments. We derive our volatility assumptions based on observed historical settled global LNG market pricing or accepted proxies for global LNG market pricing as well as settled domestic natural gas pricing. Such volatility assumptions also contemplate, as of the balance sheet date, observable forward curve data of such indices, as well as evolving available industry data and independent studies. In developing our volatility assumptions, we acknowledge that the global LNG industry is inherently influenced by events such as unplanned supply constraints, geopolitical incidents, unusual climate events including drought and uncommonly mild, by historical standards, winters and summers, and real or threatened disruptive operational impacts to global energy infrastructure. Our current estimate of volatility does not exclude the impact of otherwise rare events unless we believe market participants would exclude such events on account of their assertion that those events were specific to our company and deemed within our control.

As applicable to our natural gas supply contracts, our fair value estimates incorporate market participant-based assumptions pertaining to applicable contractual uncertainties, including those related to the availability of market information for delivery points, as well as the timing of both satisfaction of contractual events or states of affairs and delivery commencement. We may recognize changes in fair value through earnings that could be significant to our results of operations if and when such uncertainties are resolved.

Additionally, the valuation of certain physical liquefaction supply derivatives requires significant judgment in estimating underlying forward commodity curves due to periods of unobservability or limited liquidity. Such valuations are more susceptible to variability particularly when markets are volatile. Provided below are the changes in fair value from valuation of instruments valued through the use of internal models which incorporate significant unobservable inputs for the years ended December 31, 2023 and 2022 (in millions), which entirely consisted of physical liquefaction supply derivatives. The changes in fair value shown are limited to instruments still held at the end of each respective period.

The changes in fair value on instruments held at the end of both years are primarily attributed to a significant variance in the estimated and observable forward international LNG commodity prices on our IPM agreements during the years ended December 31, 2023 and 2022.

The estimated fair value of level 3 derivatives recognized in our Consolidated Balance Sheets as of December 31, 2023 and 2022 amounted to a liability of $2.2 billion and $9.9 billion, respectively, consisting entirely of physical liquefaction supply derivatives.

The ultimate fair value of our derivative instruments is uncertain, and we believe that it is reasonably possible that a material change in the estimated fair value could occur in the near future, particularly as it relates to commodity prices given the level of volatility in the current year. See Item 7A. Quantitative and Qualitative Disclosures About Market Risk for further analysis of the sensitivity of the fair value of our derivatives to hypothetical changes in underlying prices.