Cheniere Energy Inc

In 2023, the LNG market continued to rebalance with robust LNG flows to Europe maintaining the region’s underground storage inventories at high levels, and weak demand in Japan and Korea largely offsetting a modest rebound in China and other emerging economies in Asia. Price levels started moving towards pre-Russia-Ukraine war levels in the second quarter of 2023 and have for the most part normalized versus pre-war levels, as concerns about physical market tightness dissipated. However, extensive upstream maintenance in Norway and concerns about tight supply capacity amid strike threats in Australia elevated prices during the third quarter of 2023 and brought some volatility back to the market, albeit not at much lower levels than those seen in 2022. These conditions were quickly resolved, and winter prices remained within a more normal level, despite the eruption of military conflict in the Middle East in October.

The TTF monthly settlement prices averaged $13.73/MMBtu in 2023, over 66% lower year-over-year and 4.6% lower than 2021. Similarly, the 2023 average settlement price for the Japan Korea Marker (“JKM”) decreased 53% year-over-year to an average of $16.13/MMBtu in 2023. Prices in the fourth quarter of 2023 also decreased, with TTF averaging $13.66/MMBtu and JKM $14.97/MMBtu - both significantly below levels seen in the previous two years. The Henry Hub benchmark also witnessed a similar year-over-year drop albeit from a much lower base. The Henry Hub average settlement price in 2023 was $2.74, down approximately 59% from $6.64/MMBtu in 2022 during the height of the energy crisis in Europe.

The U.S. played a significant role in balancing the global market in 2023, exporting approximately 86 million tonnes of LNG, a gain of approximately 13% from 2022, due in part to the return of Freeport LNG to operations. Exports from our Liquefaction Projects reached 44 million tonnes in aggregate, representing over 50% of total U.S. exports for the year, according to Kpler data.

Global LNG demand grew by approximately 3% from 2022, adding 10.5 million tonnes to the overall market. Although overall Asian demand has increased from 2022, weakness in Japan, mainly due to improved nuclear availability, along with continued gas demand destruction in Europe, especially in the residential sector, exerted downward pressure on the market and kept LNG and gas prices from increasing. Despite the decrease in Japanese demand, which was down approximately 8% or 6 mtpa year-over-year, Asia’s LNG imports increased roughly 4% year-over-year in 2023 to approximately 263 mtpa. This uptick was largely due to an approximately 8.4 mtpa year-over-year growth in South and Southeast Asia’s demand and a modest rebound in China’s economy, which resulted in approximately 12% or 7.5 mtpa increase in LNG imports into the country. In Europe, despite continued declines in gas demand, LNG imports were flat year-over-year as pipeline flows from Russia to the EU remained low at 27 billion cubic meters (“Bcm”), down 36 Bcm or 57% year-over-year.

The market dynamics brought on by the need to displace and replace Russian gas into Europe in 2023 resulted in a notable uptick in long-term LNG contracting and a push for LNG project FIDs. Commercial activity in 2023 continued to build on last year’s momentum with executed long-term SPAs in the U.S. reaching approximately 23 mtpa for the year, of which our SPAs and IPM agreements totaled approximately 6.5 mtpa. This contractual momentum over the past two years led to the positive FID of nearly 40 mtpa of U.S. LNG capacity in 2023, and we anticipate that a portion of these contracts will support our future growth.

Despite the global impacts of the Russia-Ukraine war, we do not believe we have significant exposure to adverse direct or indirect impacts of the war, as we do not conduct business in Russia and refrain from business dealings with Russian entities. Additionally, we are not aware of any specific adverse direct or indirect effects of the Russia-Ukraine war or the Israel-Hamas war on our supply chain. Consequently, we believe we are well positioned to help meet the increased demand of our international LNG customers to overcome their supply shortages.